Weather synopsis

TEMPERATURE: This past week (August 9 – 15, 2021) the prairies continued to experience above-average temperatures and extremely dry conditions. Across the prairies, the average 30-day (July 17 – August 15, 2021) temperature was 1.5 °C warmer than climate normal values. The warmest temperatures were observed across the southern prairies (Fig. 1). A comparison of temperature anomalies (difference between average and observed temperatures) for this period indicated that southern Alberta and northeast Saskatchewan were approximately 3 °C warmer than normal (Fig. 2). Average temperatures around Peace River, Edmonton, and southern Manitoba were most similar to climate normal values.

Figure 1. 30-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of July 17– August 15, 2021.
Figure 2. Temperature anomalies (difference from climate normal values) for average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of July 17 – August 15, 2021.

The 2021 growing season (April 1 – August 15, 2021) has been 1.5 °C warmer than average (Fig. 3). Growing season temperature anomalies indicate that Parkland and Peace River regions have been 1.5-2.5 °C warmer than normal (Fig. 4).

Figure 3. Growing season average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1 – August 15, 2021.
Figure 4. Temperature anomalies (difference from climate normal values) for average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1 – August 15, 2021.

Growing degree day (GDD) maps for Base 5 ºC and Base 10 ºC (April 1-August 9, 2021) can be viewed by clicking the hyperlinks. Over the past 7 days (August 12-18, 2021), the lowest temperatures recorded across the Canadian prairies ranged from < -1 to >11 °C while the highest temperatures observed ranged from <20 to >37 °C. Check the number of days of >25 °C or >30 °C across the Canadian prairies (April 1-August 11, 2021). Access these maps and more using the AAFC Drought Watch webpage interface.

PRECIPITATION: Weekly (August 9-15, 2021) rainfall amounts were generally less than 5 mm. Rainfall amounts for the period of July 17 – August 15 (30-day accumulation) have been well below average with most of the prairies reporting rain amounts that were less than 40 mm (Fig. 5). Growing season precipitation has been below average across most of the prairies with cumulative rain amounts that have been less than 100 mm. A region extending from Lethbridge to northeastern Saskatchewan has had less than 100 mm of rain (Fig. 6).

Figure 5. 30-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of July 17 – August 15, 2021
Figure 6. Growing season cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1 – August 15, 2021.

The maps above are all produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Growers can bookmark the AAFC Current Conditions Maps for the growing season. Historical weather data can be access at the AAFC Drought Watch Historical website, Environment Canada’s Historical Data website, or your provincial weather network.

Early detection of invasive insect species

Many of Canada’s economically important species of insect pests originated as invasive species that managed to relocate and establish self-sustaining populations. Over time, they became increasingly widespread and so frequently abundant that they became part of the annual list of species we monitor and attempt to manage.

Examples of invasive species that now exist as part of our field crop landscape include wheat midge, cereal leaf beetle, cabbage seedpod weevil, pea leaf weevil, swede midge – in fact, the list of invasive species is far longer! It’s important to consider the impact of invasive species AND recognize that a growing list of species will likely affect field crops in Canada. Globalization, adaptation, and the development of new cultivars suited to Canada’s growing regions, climate change, plus many other factors will contribute to the reality: we can expect more invasive species to continue to arrive.

Where can you play a role??? Early detection and accurate identification are key steps involved in mitigating the risks associated with new invasive species. Many levels of government are active in the ongoing battle against invasive species. Even so, initial detections often arise from keen in-field scouting by producers or agrologists so access these resources to help identify the “that’s weird” or “I haven’t seen that before”. And be sure to thank the many entomologists – regional, provincial, federal, and some amazing amateurs PLUS the folks at Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) who ALL work to stand on guard for thee!

Canadian Food Inspection Agency’s (CFIA) main Plant Health section can be accessed here.

• More specifically, CFIA’s Plant Pests and Invasive Species information is accessible here.

• Did you know…. CFIA’s top field crop invasive species include anything falling under the List of Pests Regulated by Canada which is accessible here. Caveats are that (i) some species may be on the list (e.g., codling moth) that are not necessarily a high priority but remain to maintain regulatory policy or (ii) list may include species yet to be removed.

• Anyone can access diagnostic information for invasive species at CFIA’s Plant Pest Surveillance section accessible here.

HERE’S WHERE YOU CAN HELP – Experienced producers and agrologists make important discoveries every day! Keep Canadian agriculture strong and support the detection of invasive species using this important information and the three options when encountering unusual damage symptoms or unknown insect species:

Important details to be ready to report: Be ready to include details to make a “report” – Sightings need to be validated so providing as much detail as possible will help the expert confirm identifications and relocate the site, if the issue demands urgent attention.
◦ Date of observation
◦ Nearest town and province
◦ Latitude x longitude values
◦ Host plant(s)
◦ Good photo(s) – lateral, dorsal, damage symptoms, host plant, etc., with some sort of size reference is ideal
◦ Chronological photos (i.e., that tell the story of detection and how and when symptoms or specimen came to your attention)
◦ A specimen may be needed by your provincial entomologist or CFIA

Option 1: Contact your provincial entomologist to confirm identifications and details – they are able to help and historically have acted to triage reports then direct relevant information to CFIA counterparts:
◦ Manitoba (John.Gavloski@gov.mb.ca )
◦ Saskatchewan (james.tansey@gov.sk.ca)
◦ Alberta (shelley.barkley@gov.ab.ca)

Option 2: Alternatively, reports can be sent directly using one of the following paths:
◦ Using CFIA’s Report A Pest website form
◦ Contact a local CFIA office
◦ Or contact CFIA’S general surveillance account email at cfia.surveillance-surveillance.acia@canada.ca
◦ Or contact CFIA’s Survey Biologist for the Western Area (david.holden@canada.ca)

Option 3: Another alternative is to consider documenting your query using iNaturalist.ca (read more here). The basic steps involved are:
◦ Create an account at iNaturalist.ca (https://inaturalist.ca/signup)
◦ Watch your Inbox for a basic how-to guide.
◦ Upload photos or videos (e.g., bird calls) to create an “Observation”
◦ iNaturalist subscribers considered to be experts will help identify your observation.

Crop Metrics Application

Reminder – Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has released the Canadian Crop Metrics application. This product contains useful and interesting information about the current status of crops grown across Canada. The application also presents data for a number of pest insects including bertha armyworm, diamondback moth, grasshoppers and wheat midge.

Read over the synopsis of the Canadian Crop Metrics application to gain a sense of what the resource has to offer and how to optimize access. It allows users to look at specific regions and generate reports, graphs, and tables to compare current conditions to historical conditions for 11 different crop types. Weather data is updated regularly and yield estimates are updated monthly from July to October. Forecasts are made at the beginning of the months of July, August and September for all crops, and an additional forecast is made for corn and soybeans (late season crops) at the beginning of October. Forecasts are jointly produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and Statistics Canada using historical yield, climate and satellite data as inputs.

Screenshots of the application are below for reference. Get started here!

Weather synopsis

TEMPERATURE: This past week (August 2-8, 2021) the prairies continued to experience above-average temperatures and extremely dry conditions. The warmest temperatures were observed across southern and central regions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba (Fig. 1). Across the prairies, the average 30-day (July 10 – August 8, 2021) temperature was 2.5°C warmer than climate normal values (Fig. 2). The 2021 growing season (April 1 – August 8, 2021) has been 1.6 °C warmer than average (Fig. 3).

Figure 1. 7-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of August 2- 8, 2021.
Figure 2. 30-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of July 10 – August 8, 2021.
Figure 3. Growing season average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1 – August 8, 2021.

Growing degree day (GDD) maps for Base 5 ºC and Base 10 ºC (April 1-August 9, 2021) can be viewed by clicking the hyperlinks. Over the past 7 days (August 5-11, 2021), the lowest temperatures recorded across the Canadian prairies ranged from < 0 to >12 °C while the highest temperatures observed ranged from <22 to >34 °C. Check the number of days of >25 °C or >30 °C across the Canadian prairies (April 1-August 11, 2021). Access these maps and more using the AAFC Drought Watch webpage interface.

PRECIPITATION: Weekly (August 2-8, 2021) rainfall amounts were generally less than 5 mm (Fig. 4). Rainfall amounts for the period of July 10 – August 8 (30-day accumulation) have been well below average with most of the prairies receiving less than 40% of the average amount for this time period (Fig. 5). Growing season precipitation has been below average across most of the prairies. A region extending from Regina to the USA border is the only region reporting near-normal rainfall for the period of April 1 – August 8, 2021. A region extending from Lethbridge to northeastern Saskatchewan has had less than 100 mm of rain (Fig. 6) in 2021.

Figure 4. 7-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of August 2 – 8, 2021.
Figure 5. 30-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of July 10 – August 8, 2021
Figure 6. Growing season cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1 – August 8, 2021.

The maps above are all produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Growers can bookmark the AAFC Current Conditions Maps for the growing season. Historical weather data can be access at the AAFC Drought Watch Historical website, Environment Canada’s Historical Data website, or your provincial weather network.

Crop Metrics Application

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has released the Canadian Crop Metrics application. This product contains useful and interesting information about the current status of crops grown across Canada. The application also presents data for a number of pest insects including bertha armyworm, diamondback moth, grasshoppers and wheat midge.

Read over the synopsis of the Canadian Crop Metrics application to gain a sense of what the resource has to offer and how to optimize access. It allows users to look at specific regions and generate reports, graphs, and tables to compare current conditions to historical conditions for 11 different crop types. Weather data is updated regularly and yield estimates are updated monthly from July to October. Forecasts are made at the beginning of the months of July, August and September for all crops, and an additional forecast is made for corn and soybeans (late season crops) at the beginning of October. Forecasts are jointly produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and Statistics Canada using historical yield, climate and satellite data as inputs.

Screenshots of the application are below for reference. Get started here!

Weather synopsis

TEMPERATURE: This past week (July 26 – August 1, 2021) the prairies continued to experience above-average temperatures and extremely dry conditions. The warmest temperatures were observed across the southern and central regions of Alberta and Saskatchewan (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. 7-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of July 26 – August 1, 2021.

Across the prairies, the average 30-day (July 3 – August 1, 2021) temperature was 2.5 °C warmer than climate-normal values. The warmest temperatures were observed across the southern prairies (Table 1; Fig. 2). Temperature anomalies for July indicated that the entire Canadian prairies were warmer than normal (Fig. 3). The Peace River region, Edmonton area, and southern Manitoba experienced average temperatures most similar to climate-normal values. July average temperatures for southern Alberta and Saskatchewan (southwest and northeast) were 3-4 °C warmer than normal. Lethbridge and Swift Current average temperatures were 3.1 °C warmer than climate-normals.

Figure 2. 30-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of July 3 – August 1, 2021.
Figure 3. Temperature anomalies (difference from climate-normal values) for average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of July 3 – August 1, 2021.

The 2021 growing season (April 1 – August 1, 2021) has been 1.5 °C warmer than average (Table 2; Fig. 4). Growing season temperature anomalies indicate that Parkland and Peace River regions have been 2-3 °C warmer than climate-normals (Fig. 5).

Figure 4. Growing season average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1 – August 1, 2021.
Figure 5. Temperature anomalies (difference from climate-normal values) for average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1 – August 1, 2021.

Growing degree day (GDD) maps for Base 5 ºC and Base 10 ºC (April 1-July 26, 2021) can be viewed by clicking the hyperlinks. Over the past 7 days (July 26-August 1, 2021), the lowest temperatures recorded across the Canadian prairies ranged from < 0 to >13 °C while the highest temperatures observed ranged from <25 to >37 °C. With the incredible heat experienced so far, check the number of days of >25 °C or >30 °C across the Canadian prairies (April 1-August 1, 2021). At this point in the growing season, review the astonishing consecutive number of days of >25 °C or >30 °C across the Canadian prairies (April 1-August 1, 2021). Access these maps and more using the AAFC Drought Watch webpage interface.

PRECIPITATION: Weekly (July 26 – August 1, 2021) rainfall amounts were generally less than 5 mm (Fig. 6). Rainfall amounts for the period of July 3 – August 1 (30-day accumulation) have been well below average with most of the prairies receiving less than 40 % of the average amount for this time period (Fig. 7). Accumulated rainfall varied significantly. Grande Prairie and Swift Current reported near-normal rainfall while Saskatoon (13.5 % of normal) and Winnipeg (21.6 % of normal) received minimal rainfall during July (Table 1).

Figure 6. 7-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of July 26 – August 1, 2021.
Figure 7. 30-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of July 3 – August 1, 2021.

Growing season precipitation has been below average across most of the prairies. A region extending from Regina to the USA border is the only region that has reported near-normal rainfall for the period of April 1 – August 1, 2021, whereas a region extending from Lethbridge to northeastern Saskatchewan has received less than 100 mm of rain (Table 2; Fig. 8).

Figure 8. Growing season cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1 – August 1, 2021.

The maps above are all produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Growers can bookmark the AAFC Current Conditions Maps for the growing season. Historical weather data can be access at the AAFC Drought Watch Historical website, Environment Canada’s Historical Data website, or your provincial weather network.

Weather synopsis

TEMPERATURE: This past week (July 5 – 11, 2021), the prairies continued to experience record-setting temperatures and extremely dry conditions. The warmest temperatures were observed across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan (Fig. 1). Across the prairies, the average 30-day temperature (June 12 – July 11, 2021) was almost 3 °C warmer than climate normal values. The warmest temperatures were observed across southern Alberta and western Saskatchewan (Fig. 2). Southern and western areas of the Peace River region have been 4-5 °C warmer than average.

Figure 1. 7-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of July 5 – 11, 2021.
Figure 2. 30-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of June 12 – July 11, 2021.

The 2021 growing season (April 1 – July 4, 2021) has been 1.5 °C warmer than average. The warmest temperatures have occurred across southeastern Manitoba, west-central Saskatchewan and southern Alberta (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Growing season average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1 – July 11, 2021.

Growing degree day (GDD) maps for Base 5 ºC and Base 10 ºC (April 1-July 12, 2021) can be viewed by clicking the hyperlinks. Over the past 7 days (July 6-12, 2021), the lowest temperatures recorded across the Canadian prairies ranged from < -1 to >10 °C while the highest temperatures observed ranged from <26 to >36 °C. With the incredible heat experienced so far, check the number of days of >25 °C or >30 °C across the Canadian prairies (April 1-July 12, 2021). Access these maps and more using the AAFC Drought Watch webpage interface.

PRECIPITATION: This past week, significant rainfall was reported across southern and central Saskatchewan and Alberta (Fig. 4). Rainfall amounts for the period of June 12 – July 11 (30-day accumulation) have been well below average with most of the prairies receiving less than 40% average (Fig. 5). Growing season (April 1 – July 11) precipitation has been less than average across most of the prairies. Western Saskatchewan and most of Alberta have received less than 100 mm of rain (Fig. 6).

Figure 4. 7-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of July 5 – 11, 2021.
Figure 5. 30-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of June 12 – July 11, 2021
Figure 6. Growing season cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1 – July 11, 2021.

The maps above are all produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Growers can bookmark the AAFC Current Conditions Maps for the growing season. Historical weather data can be access at the AAFC Drought Watch Historical website, Environment Canada’s Historical Data website, or your provincial weather network.

Weather synopsis

TEMPERATURE: This past week (June 28 – July 4, 2021) an extreme heatwave affected temperatures across most of western North America. The North American heat dome was associated with exceptionally hot weather and resulted in numerous record temperatures across the Canadian prairies. Compared to climate normal temperature values, observed weekly average temperatures were 7.4 °C warmer than average! The warmest temperatures were observed across southern Alberta and western Saskatchewan. Table 1 provides a comparison between observed and average temperatures for the ten warmest locations across the prairies.

Similar to last week, the warmest temperatures were observed across Alberta (Fig. 1). Across the prairies, the average 30-day (June 5 – July 4, 2021) temperature was almost 3 °C warmer than climate normal values. The warmest temperatures were observed across southern Manitoba and southeastern Alberta (Fig. 2).

Figure 1. 7-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of June 28 – July 4, 2021.
Figure 2. 30-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of June 5 – July 4, 2021.

The 2021 growing season (April 1 – July 4, 2021) has been characterized by temperatures that have been 1.5 °C warmer than average. The warmest temperatures have occurred across southeastern Manitoba, west-central Saskatchewan and southern Alberta (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Growing season average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1 – July 4, 2021.

Growing degree day (GDD) maps for Base 5 ºC and Base 10 ºC (April 1-July 5, 2021) can be viewed by clicking the hyperlinks. Over the past 7 days (July 1-7, 2021), the lowest temperatures recorded across the Canadian prairies ranged from < 0 to >12 °C while the highest temperatures observed ranged from <28 to >39 °C. With the incredible heat experienced so far, check the number of days of >25 °C or >30 °C across the Canadian prairies (April 1-July 7, 2021). Access these maps and more using the AAFC Drought Watch webpage interface.

PRECIPITATION: This past week, minimal rainfall was reported across most of the prairies with most locations reporting weekly amounts of less than 2 mm (Fig. 4). Higher rainfall amounts were reported across central Alberta and northern areas across the Peace River region. Rainfall amounts for the period of June 5 – July 4 (30-day accumulation) have been well below average across most of the prairies. The lowest rainfall amounts have occurred across most of Saskatchewan as well as southern and northern regions of Alberta (Fig. 5).

Figure 4. 7-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of June 28 – July 4, 2021.
Figure 5. 30-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of June 5 – July 4, 2021

The average growing season (April 1 – July 4) precipitation was 90 % of normal with the greatest precipitation occurring across eastern Saskatchewan, including Regina. Below normal rainfall has been reported across western Saskatchewan, southern Alberta and the Peace River region(Fig. 6).

Figure 6. Growing season cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1 – July 4, 2021.

The maps above are all produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Growers can bookmark the AAFC Current Conditions Maps for the growing season. Historical weather data can be access at the AAFC Drought Watch Historical website, Environment Canada’s Historical Data website, or your provincial weather network.

Weather synopsis

TEMPERATURE: This past week (June 21-27, 2021), weekly temperatures were warmer than normal and rainfall amounts were generally less than 5 mm. The warmest temperatures were observed across Alberta (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. 7-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of June 21- 27, 2021.

Across the prairies, the average 30-day (May 29 – June 27) temperature was almost 3 °C warmer than climate normal values. The warmest temperatures continue to be observed across southern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan (Fig. 2). The 2021 growing season (April 1 – June 27, 2021) has been characterized by near-normal temperatures. The warmest temperatures have occurred across southern and central regions of the three prairie provinces (Fig. 3).

Figure 2. 30-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of May 29 – June 27, 2021.
Figure 3. Growing season average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1 – June 27, 2021.

Growing degree day (GDD) maps for Base 5 ºC and Base 10 ºC (April 1-Jun 28, 2021) can be viewed by clicking the hyperlinks. Over the past 7 days (June 22-28, 2021), the lowest temperatures recorded across the Canadian prairies ranged from < -32 to >7 °C while the highest temperatures observed ranged from <22 to >36 °C. Access these maps and more using the AAFC Drought Watch webpage interface.

PRECIPITATION: This week, the highest rainfall amounts were reported across central Alberta, southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba. Minimal rainfall was reported across most of central Alberta and northwestern Saskatchewan (Fig. 4).

Figure 4. 7-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of June 21 -27, 2021.

Rainfall amounts for the period of May 29-June 27 (30-day accumulation) were near normal. Rainfall amounts have been below normal across Alberta and large areas of Saskatchewan. Eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba have continued to receive the greatest amount of rainfall (Fig. 4).

Figure 5. 30-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of May 29 – June 27, 2021

Average growing season (April 1 – June 27) precipitation was 103 % of normal with greatest precipitation occurring across eastern Saskatchewan, including Regina. Below normal rainfall has been reported across western Saskatchewan, southern Alberta and the Peace River region (Fig. 6).

Figure 6. Growing season cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1-June 27, 2021.

The maps above are all produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Growers can bookmark the AAFC Current Conditions Maps for the growing season. Historical weather data can be access at the AAFC Drought Watch Historical website, Environment Canada’s Historical Data website, or your provincial weather network.

Weekly Wind Trajectory Report for June 28

Access background information for how and why wind trajectories are monitored in this post.

1. REVERSE TRAJECTORIES (RT)
Since June 16, 2021, a decreasing number of reverse trajectories have moved north from the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon and Washington), Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska (Fig. 1). Though these US regions can be a source of diamondback moths (DBM), the ECCC models predict air movement, not actual occurrence of diamondback moths. Fields (and DBM traps) should be monitored for DBM adults and larvae.

Figure 1. The average number (based on a 5 day running average) of reverse trajectories that have crossed the prairies for the period of May 28 – June 28, 2021.

a. Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington) – This week (June 22-28, 2021) there were 3 trajectories that crossed Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan that originated in the Pacific Northwest.

b. Mexico and southwest USA (Texas, California) – This week (June 22-28, 2021) there were 0 trajectories that originated in Mexico or the southwest USA that crossed the prairies.

c. Oklahoma and Texas – This week (June 22-28, 2021) there were 0 trajectories originating in Oklahoma or Texas that passed over the prairies.

d. Kansas and Nebraska – This week (June 22-28, 2021) there were 0 trajectories that originated in Kansas or Nebraska that passed over the prairies.

2. FORWARD TRAJECTORIES (FT)
a. Since June 9, 2021 there has been a steady decrease in the number of forward trajectories that are predicted to cross the prairies (Fig. 2). The dates on the graph report when the trajectories originated in the USA (blue bars). These trajectories generally require 3-5 days to enter the prairies (red line).

Figure 2. The average number (based on a 5 day running average) of forward trajectories that were predicted to cross the prairies for the period of May 28-June 28, 2021.

Weather synopsis

TEMPERATURE: This past week (June 14-20, 2021), weekly temperatures were above normal and rainfall amounts for Saskatchewan and Manitoba were less than 5 mm. The warmest temperatures were observed across the southern and central regions of Alberta as well as western Saskatchewan (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. 7-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of June 14 – 20, 2021.

Across the prairies, the average 30-day (May 22 – June 20) temperature was 1.4 °C warmer than climate normal values. The warmest temperatures were observed across southern Manitoba (Fig. 2). The 2021 growing season (April 1 – June 20, 2021) has been characterized by near normal temperatures. The warmest temperatures have occurred across southern and central regions of the three prairie provinces (Fig. 3).

Figure 2. 30-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of May 22 – June 20, 2021.
Figure 3. Growing season average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1 – June 20, 2021.

Growing degree day (GDD) maps for Base 5 ºC and Base 10 ºC (April 1-Jun 21, 2021) can be viewed by clicking the hyperlinks. Over the past 7 days (June 10-16, 2021), the lowest temperatures recorded across the Canadian prairies ranged from < -33 to >3 °C while the highest temperatures observed ranged from <24 to >36 °C. Access these maps and more using the AAFC Drought Watch webpage interface.

PRECIPITATION: This week, the highest rainfall amounts were reported across the Peace River region. Minimal rainfall was reported across most of Manitoba (Fig. 4). Rainfall amounts for the period of May 22-June 20 (30-day accumulation) were above normal (150 % of long-term average values). Rainfall amounts have been above normal for northeastern Alberta, most of Saskatchewan, and western and central regions of Manitoba (Fig. 5).

Figure 4. 7-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of June 14 -20, 2021.
Figure 5. 30-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of May 22 – June 20, 2021

The average growing season (April 1 – June 20) precipitation was 116 % of normal with the greatest precipitation occurring across central Alberta, eastern Saskatchewan, including Regina, and an area extending from Brandon to Winnipeg. Below normal rainfall has been reported across western Saskatchewan and southern Alberta (Fig. 6).

Figure 7. Growing season cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1-June 20, 2021.

The maps above are all produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Growers can bookmark the AAFC Current Conditions Maps for the growing season. Historical weather data can be access at the AAFC Drought Watch Historical website, Environment Canada’s Historical Data website, or your provincial weather network.

Weekly Wind Trajectory Report for June 21

Access background information for how and why wind trajectories are monitored in this post.

1. REVERSE TRAJECTORIES (RT)
Since June 16, 2021, there have been a decreasing number of reverse trajectories that moved north from the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon and Washington), Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. The average number (based on a 5-day running average) of reverse trajectories that have crossed the prairies for the period of May 21 – June 21, 2021.

a. Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington) – This week (June 16-21, 2021) there have been 43 trajectories that have crossed Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan that originated in the Pacific Northwest (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. Total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, and Washington) and have crossed the prairies between March 24 and June 21, 2021.

b. Mexico and southwest USA (Texas, California) – This week (June 16 – 21, 2021) there have been 3 trajectories that originated in Mexico or the southwest USA that have crossed the prairies.

c. Oklahoma and Texas – This week (June 16 – 21, 2021) there have been 4 trajectories originating in Oklahoma or Texas that have passed over the prairies.

d. Kansas and Nebraska – This week (June 16 – 21, 2021) there have been 8 trajectories that originated in Kansas or Nebraska that passed over the prairies.

2. FORWARD TRAJECTORIES (FT)
a. Since June 9, 2021, there has been a steady decrease in the number of forward trajectories that are predicted to cross the prairies (Fig. 3). The dates on the graph report when the trajectories originated in the USA (blue bars). These trajectories generally require 3-5 days to enter the prairies (red line).

Figure 3. The average number (based on a 5 day running average) of forward trajectories that were predicted to cross the prairies for the period of May 21-June 21, 2021.

Weather synopsis

TEMPERATURE: This past week (June 7-13, 2021), weekly temperatures were above normal and rainfall in eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba were above normal. The warmest temperatures were observed across Manitoba and Saskatchewan (Fig. 1). Across the prairies, the average 30-day (May 15 – June 13) temperature was 1 °C warmer than climate normal values. Warmest temperatures were observed across southern Manitoba (Fig. 2). The 2021 growing season (April 1 – June 13, 2021) has been characterized by near normal temperatures (Fig. 3).

Figure 1. 7-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of June 7 -13, 2021.
Figure 2. 30-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of May 15 – June 13, 2021.
Figure 3. Growing season average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1 – June 13, 2021.

Growing degree day (GDD) maps for Base 5 ºC and Base 10 ºC (April 1-Jun14, 2021) can be viewed by clicking the hyperlinks. Over the past 7 days (June 10-16, 2021), the lowest temperatures recorded across the Canadian prairies ranged from < -32 to >8 °C while the highest temperatures observed ranged from <19 to >35 °C. Access these maps and more using the AAFC Drought Watch webpage interface.

PRECIPITATION: This week, the highest rainfall amounts were reported across eastern Saskatchewan and most of Manitoba. Minimal rainfall was reported across most of Alberta (Fig. 4). Rainfall amounts for the period of May 15-June 13 (30-day accumulation) were above normal (150% of long-term average values). Rainfall amounts have been above normal for northeastern Alberta, northwestern and southeastern Saskatchewan, and western Manitoba. Well above normal rain was reported for Lloydminster, Regina, and Brandon regions. Below normal rainfall amounts were reported for the Peace River region and southern Alberta (Fig. 5). Average growing season (April 1 – June 13) precipitation was 116% of normal with the greatest precipitation occurring across eastern Saskatchewan, including Regina and an area extending from Brandon to Winnipeg. Below normal rainfall has been reported across western Saskatchewan and southern Alberta (Fig. 6).

Figure 4 . 7-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of June 7 -13, 2021.
Figure 5. 30-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of May 15 – June 13, 2021
Figure 6. Growing season cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1-June 13, 2021.

The maps above are all produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Growers can bookmark the AAFC Current Conditions Maps for the growing season. Historical weather data can be access at the AAFC Drought Watch Historical website, Environment Canada’s Historical Data website, or your provincial weather network.

Weekly Wind Trajectory Report for June 15

Access background information for how and why wind trajectories are monitored in this post.

1. REVERSE TRAJECTORIES (RT)
Similar to last week, this week there were an increasing number of reverse trajectories moving north from the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon and Washington) (Fig. 1). Though this US region can be a source of diamondback moths (DBM), the ECCC models predict air movement, not actual occurrence of diamondback moths. Fields (and DBM traps) should be monitored for DBM adults and larvae.

Figure 1. The average number (based on a 5 day running average) of reverse trajectories that have crossed the prairies for the period of May 15 – June 15, 2021.

a. Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington) – This week (June 11-15, 2021) there were 109 trajectories (versus 106 last week) that crossed Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. Total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, and Washington) and have crossed the prairies between March 24 and June 15, 2021.

b. Mexico and southwest USA (Texas, California) – Compared to previous years, there has been a noticeable increase in number of trajectories from the southern US. The majority of these trajectories have crossed Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan (Fig. 3). This week (June 11-15, 2021) there have been 11 trajectories (10 last week) that originated in Mexico or the southwest USA that have crossed the prairies.

Figure 3. The total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over Mexico, California and Texas and have crossed the prairies between March 24 and June 15, 2021.

c. Oklahoma and Texas – The majority of these trajectories passed over Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan (Fig. 4). This week (June 11-15, 2021) there were 18 trajectories (13 last week) originating in Oklahoma or Texas that passed over the prairies.

Figure 4. The total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over Oklahoma and Texas and have crossed the prairies between March 24 and June 15, 2021.

d. Kansas and Nebraska – This week (June 11-15, 2021) there were 20 trajectories (19 last week) that originated in Kansas or Nebraska that passed over the prairies (Fig. 5).

Figure 5. The total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over Kansas and Nebraska and have crossed the prairies between March 24 and June 15, 2021.

2. FORWARD TRAJECTORIES (FT)
a. This week there was a decrease in the number of forward trajectories predicted to cross the prairies (Fig. 6). The dates on the graph report when the trajectories originated in the USA (blue bars). These trajectories generally require 3-5 days to enter the prairies (red line). The data suggests that there will be increased potential for introduction of DBM to the prairies.

Figure 6. The average number (based on a 5 day running average) of forward trajectories that were predicted to cross the prairies for the period of May 15-June 15, 2021.

Weekly Wind Trajectory Report for June 10

Access background information for how and why wind trajectories are monitored in this post.

1. REVERSE TRAJECTORIES (RT)
This past week (in particular June 9 and 10) there were an increasing number of reverse trajectories moving north from the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon and Washington), Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska (Fig. 1). Though these US regions can be a source of diamondback moths (DBM), the ECCC models predict air movement, not actual occurrence of diamondback moths. Fields (and DBM traps) should be monitored for DBM adults and larvae.

Figure 1. The average number (based on a 5 day running average) of reverse trajectories that have crossed the prairies for the period of May 15 – June 10 2021.

a. Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington) – This week there have been 106 trajectories (53 last week) that have crossed Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. This growing season, PNW trajectories have crossed all parts of the prairies (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. Total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, and Washington) and have crossed the prairies between March 24 and June 10, 2021.

b. Mexico and southwest USA (Texas, California) – Compared to previous years, there has been a noticeable increase in the number of trajectories from the southern US. The majority of these trajectories have crossed Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan (Fig. 3). This week there have been 10 trajectories (0 last week) that originated in Mexico or the southwest USA that have crossed the prairies (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. The total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over Mexico, California and Texas and have crossed the prairies between March 24 and June 10, 2021.

c. Oklahoma and Texas – This week there have been 13 trajectories (0 last week) originating in Oklahoma or Texas that have passed over the prairies (Fig. 4).

Figure 4. The total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over Oklahoma and Texas and have crossed the prairies between March 24 and June 10, 2021.

d. Kansas and Nebraska – This week there were 19 trajectories (versus 1 last week) that originated in Kansas or Nebraska that passed over the prairies (Fig. 5). Relative to the reverse trajectories associated with Oklahoma and Texas (Fig. 4), the trajectories from Kansas and Nebraska have crossed further into Alberta (Fig. 5).

Figure 5. The total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over Kansas and Nebraska and have crossed the prairies between March 24 and June 10, 2021.

2. FORWARD TRAJECTORIES (FT)
a. Continuing a trend that began last week, this week there was an increase in the number of forward trajectories predicted to cross the prairies (Fig. 6). The dates on the graph report when the trajectories originated in the USA (blue bars). These trajectories generally require 3-5 days to enter the prairies (red line). The data suggests that there will be increased potential for introduction of DBM to the prairies.

Figure 6. The average number (based on a 5-day running average) of forward trajectories that were predicted to cross the prairies for the period of May 15-June 10, 2021.

Weather synopsis

TEMPERATURE: This past week (May 31 – June 6, 2021) extremely warm conditions resulted in weekly average temperatures that were well above normal (Fig. 1). The warmest temperatures were observed across Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. 7-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of May 31 – June 6, 2021.

Across the prairies, the average 30-day (May 8 – June 6) temperature was almost 2.5 °C warmer than the previous week and 1.3 °C greater than climate normal values. Warmest temperatures were observed across southern Manitoba (Table 1; Fig. 2).

Figure x. 30-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of May 8 – June 6, 2021.

The 2021 growing season (April 1 – June 6) has been characterized by near-normal temperatures. Temperatures have been warmest for southern Manitoba and southern Alberta (Table 2; Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Growing season average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1 – June 6, 2021.

Follow the hyperlinks to access AAFC Drought Watch maps reflecting the growing degree day (GDD) for Base 5 ºC, (April 1-June 7, 2021) and for Base 10 ºC (April 1-June 7, 2021). Over the past 7 days (June 3-9, 2021), the lowest temperatures recorded ranged from <0 to >12 °C while the highest temperatures observed across the Canadian prairies ranged from <10 to >36 °C.

PRECIPITATION: This week, the highest rainfall amounts were reported across northwest Saskatchewan and central Alberta while weekly rainfall amounts less than 2 mm was reported across a large area that extended from western Manitoba, across most of Saskatchewan, to southern Alberta. Extreme dry conditions were reported across the Peace River region (Fig. 4).

Figure 4 . 7 day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of May 31 – June 6, 2021.

Rainfall amounts for the period of May 8 to June 6 (30-day accumulation) were above normal (110 % of long-term average values). Rainfall amounts have been near normal to above normal for large areas of Alberta as well as northwest and southeast Saskatchewan. Well-above-normal rain was reported for Edmonton and Regina. Below normal rainfall amounts were reported for central and northern areas of the Peace River region and across Manitoba (Table 1; Fig. 5).

Figure 5. 30-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of May 8 – June 6, 2021.

Average growing season (April 1 – June 6) precipitation was 94 % of normal with the greatest precipitation occurring near Edmonton and across eastern Saskatchewan, including Regina. Most of Manitoba and the Peace River region have had 60 % or less than normal precipitation during the 2021 growing season (Table 2; Fig. 6).

Figure 6. Growing season cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1 – June 6, 2021.

The maps above are all produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Growers can bookmark the AAFC Current Conditions Maps for the growing season. Historical weather data can be access at the AAFC Drought Watch Historical website, Environment Canada’s Historical Data website, or your provincial weather network.

Access ALL the PPMN’s Wind Trajectory reports (Weekly and Daily).

Access Environment and Climate Change Canada’s weather radar mapping interface. Options to access preceeding precipitation events include clicking off either an 1 or 3 hours time interval, using an 8-colour or 14-colour index. or changing the base map.

Predicted grasshopper development

Model simulations were used to estimate grasshopper (Melanoplus sanguinipes) development as of June 6, 2021. Average development of eggs is 86 % and is well ahead of the long term average of 73 %. Last week’s warm conditions across southeastern SK and southern Manitoba have been responsible for advanced development of eggs near Regina, Saskatoon, Brandon, and Winnipeg. Egg development is predicted to exceed 90 % across most of the southern prairies (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. Predicted grasshopper (Melanoplus sanguinipes) embryological development (%) across the Canadian prairies as of June 6, 2021.

As of June 6, hatch was predicted to be occurring across most of the prairies (overall average was 26 %) with hatch rates approaching 30-45 % across southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan (Fig. 2). The model was projected to June 22 to determine potential development at Regina and Swift Current over the next two weeks (Figs. 3 and 4). Results suggest that by June 22, Regina populations will primarily be in the third instar, with first appearance of fourth instars. Development near Swift Current is predicted to be slower, with populations being mostly in the first and second instars.

Warm, dry conditions continue to persist across Manitoba. This may result in conditions conducive to crop damage from grasshoppers as hatch progresses in June. Producers are advised to monitor roadsides and field margins to assess development and densities of local grasshopper populations.

Figure 2. Predicted grasshopper (Melanoplus sanguinipes) hatch (%) across the Canadian prairies as of June 6, 2021.
Figure 3. Predicted development of Melanoplus sanguinipes populations near Regina, Saskatchewan as of June 6, 2021 (projected to June 22, 2021).
Figure 4. Predicted development of Melanoplus sanguinipes populations near Swift Current, Saskatchewan as of June 6, 2021 (projected to June 22, 2021).

Biological and monitoring information related to grasshoppers in field crops is posted by Manitoba Agriculture and Resource DevelopmentSaskatchewan AgricultureAlberta Agriculture and Forestry, the BC Ministry of Agriculture and the Prairie Pest Monitoring Network.  Also refer to the grasshopper pages within the “Field Crop and Forage Pests and their Natural Enemies in Western Canada: Identification and management field guide” (accessible in either English-enhanced or French-enhanced versions).

Weather synopsis

TEMPERATURE: This past week (May 24-30, 2021) the average temperature across the prairies was 1 °C cooler than normal (Fig. 1). Temperatures were warmest across most of Alberta and coolest across Saskatchewan and central regions of Manitoba. Across the prairies, the average 30-day (May 1-30) temperature was almost 2 °C warmer than last week and similar to climate normal values. Warmest temperatures were observed across southern Manitoba (Table 1; Fig. 2).

Figure 1. 7-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of May 24-30, 2021.
Figure 2. 30-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of May 1-30, 2021.

The 2021 growing season (April 1 – May 31) has been characterized by near-normal temperatures. Temperatures have been warmest for southern Manitoba, western Saskatchewan and southern Alberta (Table 2; Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Growing season average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1-May 30, 2021.

The growing degree day map (GDD) (Base 5 ºC, April 1-May 31, 2021) is provided below (Fig. 4) while the growing degree day map (GDD) (Base 10 ºC, April 1-May 31, 2021) is shown in Figure 5.

Figure 4. Growing degree day map (Base 5 °C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the growing season (April 1-May 31, 2021).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (03Jun2021). Access the full map at https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true
Figure 5. Growing degree day map (Base 10 °C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the growing season (April 1-May 31, 2021).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (03Jun2021). Access the full map at https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true

Several areas were on the receiving end of frost and many folks are still watching to see how their crops recover. The lowest temperatures recorded ranged from <-14 to >0 °C (Fig. 6) while the highest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days ranged from <11 to >25 °C (Fig. 7).

Figure 6. Lowest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days (May 27-Jun 2, 2021).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (03Jun2021) although PDF file format was not available. Access the full map at https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true
Figure 7. Highest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days (May 27-Jun 2, 2021).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (03Jun2021) although PDF file format was not available. Access the full map at https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true

PRECIPITATION: This week, significant precipitation was reported across central regions of Saskatchewan and Alberta while minimal rain was reported across Manitoba and western Alberta (Fig. 8). Rainfall amounts for the period of May 1-30 (30-day accumulation) were 123 % of long-term average values. Rainfall amounts have been near normal to above normal for large areas of Alberta and southern Saskatchewan. Well above normal rain was reported for Edmonton and Regina. Below normal rainfall amounts were reported for central and northern areas of the Peace River region and across Manitoba (Table 1; Fig. 9).

Figure 8. 7-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of May 24-30, 2021.
Figure 9. 30-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of May 1-30, 2021.

Average growing season (April 1 – May 30) precipitation was 105 % of normal with the greatest precipitation occurring near Edmonton and across eastern Saskatchewan. Most of Manitoba and the Peace River region have had 60 % or less of normal precipitation during the 2021 growing season so far (Table 2; Fig. 10).

Figure x. Growing season cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1-May 30, 2021.

The maps above are all produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Growers can bookmark the AAFC Current Conditions Maps for the growing season. Historical weather data can be access at the AAFC Drought Watch Historical website, Environment Canada’s Historical Data website, or your provincial weather network.

Access ALL the PPMN’s Wind Trajectory reports (Weekly and Daily).

Access Environment and Climate Change Canada’s weather radar mapping interface. Options to access preceeding precipitation events include clicking off either an 1 or 3 hours time interval, using an 8-colour or 14-colour index. or changing the base map.

Weekly Wind Trajectory Report for June 3

Access background information for how and why wind trajectories are monitored in this post.

1. REVERSE TRAJECTORIES (RT)
This past week there were an increasing number of reverse trajectories moving north from the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon and Washington) (Fig. 1). Though this US region can be a source of diamondback moths, the ECCC models predict air movement, not actual occurrence of diamondback moths.

Figure 1. The average number (based on a 5 day running average) of reverse trajectories that have crossed the prairies for the period of May 15 – June 3 2021.

a. Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington) – This week there were 53 trajectories (compared to 36 last week) that crossed Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. In previous years, the majority of Pacific Northwest reverse trajectories usually have been reported to pass over southern Alberta. However, tis growing season, PNW trajectories have crossed all parts of the prairies (Figs. 2 and 3).

Figure 2. Total number of reverse trajectories originating across Idaho, Oregon, and Washington and have crossed specific prairie locations between March 18 and June 3, 2021.
Figure 3. Total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, and Washington) and have crossed the prairies between March 24 and June 3, 2021.

b. Mexico and southwest USA (Texas, California) – Compared to previous years, there has been a noticeable increase in the number of trajectories from the southern US. The majority of these trajectories have crossed Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan (Fig. 4). This week there were no trajectories (compared to 54 last week) that originated in Mexico or the southwest USA that crossed the prairies (Fig. 5).

Figure 4. Total number of reverse trajectories originating across Mexico, California and Texas and have crossed specific prairie locations between March 18 and June 3, 2021.
Figure 5. The total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over Mexico, California and Texas and have crossed the prairies between March 24 and June 3, 2021.

c. Oklahoma and Texas – The majority of these trajectories have passed over Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan (Fig. 6). This week there were no trajectories (compared to 51 last week) originating in Oklahoma or Texas that passed over the prairies (Fig. 7).

Figure 6. Total number of reverse trajectories originating across Oklahoma and Texas and have crossed specific prairie locations between March 18 and June 3, 2021.
Figure 7. The total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over Oklahoma and Texas and have crossed the prairies between March 24 and June 3, 2021.

d. Kansas and Nebraska – Similar to results for Oklahoma and Texas, the majority of these trajectories crossed Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan (Fig. 8). This week there was one trajectory that originated in Kansas or Nebraska that passed over Carman, Manitoba (Fig. 9). Relative to the reverse trajectories associated with Oklahoma and Texas, the trajectories from Kansas and Nebraska have crossed further into Alberta (Fig. 9).

Figure 8. Total number of reverse trajectories originating across Kansas and Nebraska and have crossed specific prairie locations between March 18 and June 3, 2021.
Figure 9. The total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over Kansas and Nebraska and have crossed the prairies between March 24 and June 3, 2021.

2. FORWARD TRAJECTORIES (FT)
a. Continuing a trend that began last week, this week there was a decrease in the number of forward trajectories that were predicted to cross the prairies (Fig. 10). The dates on the graph report when the trajectories originated in the USA (blue bars). These trajectories generally require 3-5 days to enter the prairies (red line). The data suggests that, compared to this week, there will be decreased potential for the introduction of DBM to the prairies.

Figure 10. The average number (based on a 5-day running average) of forward trajectories that were predicted to cross the prairies for the period of May 15-June 3, 2021.

Weekly Wind Trajectory Report for May 28

Access background information for how and why wind trajectories are monitored in this post.

1. REVERSE TRAJECTORIES (RT)
Since May 1, 2021 the majority of reverse trajectories that have crossed the prairies originated from the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon and Washington). For the past two weeks there have been an increasing number of reverse trajectories that moved north from Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska (Fig. 1). Compared to previous years, the number incoming trajectories (May) has increased. Though these US regions can be a source of diamondback moths, the ECCC models predict air movement, not actual occurrence of diamondback moths. It should also be noted that host plants of diamondback moth include all plants in the Brassicacea family, including cruciferous weeds and volunteer canola. These plants are suitable hosts until canola emerges.

Figure 1. The average number (based on a 5 day running average) of reverse trajectories that have crossed the prairies for
the period of May 1 – 27 2021.

a. Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington) – This week there have been 36 trajectories (44 last week) that have crossed Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. In previous years, the majority of Pacific Northwest reverse trajectories usually have been reported to pass over southern Alberta. This growing season, PNW trajectories have crossed all parts of the prairies (Fig. 2). Compared to this time last year there has been a significant increase in the number of trajectories that have crossed Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan.

Figure 2. Total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, and Washington) and
have crossed the prairies between March 24 and May 27, 2021.

b. Mexico and southwest USA (Texas, California) – Compared to previous years, there has been a noticeable increase in number of trajectories from the southern US. This week there have been 54 trajectories (15 last week) that originated in Mexico and the southwestern US that have crossed the prairies (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. The total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over Mexico, California and Texas and have
crossed the prairies between March 24 and May 27, 2021.

c. Oklahoma and Texas – This week there have been 51 trajectories (16 last week) that have passed over Manitoba, Saskatchewan and eastern Alberta that originated in Oklahoma or Texas (Fig. 4).

Figure 4. The total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over Oklahoma and Texas and have crossed
the prairies between March 24 and May 27, 2021.

d. Kansas and Nebraska – This week there have been 63 trajectories (35 last week) that originated in Kansas or Nebraska that have passed over the prairies (Fig. 5). Relative to the reverse trajectories associated with Oklahoma and Texas, the trajectories from Kansas and Nebraska have crossed further into Alberta.

Figure 5. The total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over Kansas and Nebraska and have crossed
the prairies between March 24 and May 27, 2021.

2. FORWARD TRAJECTORIES (FT)
a. Forward trajectories, originating from Mexico and USA, have crossed a number of prairie locations since May 1, 2021. This week there has been a decrease in the number of trajectories that are predicted to cross the prairies (Fig. 6). The dates on the graph report when the trajectories originated in the USA (blue bars). These trajectories generally require 3-5 days to enter the prairies (red line). The data suggests that, compared to this week, there may be increased potential for the introduction of DBM to the prairies.

Figure 6. The average number (based on a 5-day running average) of forward trajectories that have crossed
the prairies for the period of May 1- 27, 2021.

Weather synopsis

TEMPERATURE: This past week (May 17-23, 2021) began with hot dry conditions followed by cool/wet conditions (mid-week reports of snow and minimum temperatures less than 0 °C). Most of the prairies had significant rainfall over the weekend. The average temperature across the prairies was 1 °C cooler than normal (Fig. 1). For the second week temperatures were warmest across Manitoba. Temperatures were coolest across western Saskatchewan and most of Alberta.

Figure 1. 7-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of May 17-23, 2021.

The prairie-wide average 30-day temperature (April 24- May 23) was 0.4 °C less than climate normal values. The warmest temperatures were observed across the southern prairies (Table 1; Fig. 2). The 2021 growing season (April 1 – May 16) has been characterized by near-normal temperatures. Temperatures have been similar across the prairies (Table 2; Fig. 3).

Figure 2. 30-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 24-May 23, 2021.
Figure 3. Growing season average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1-May 23, 2021.

The growing degree day map (GDD) (Base 5 ºC, April 1-May 24, 2021) is provided below (Fig. 4) while the growing degree day map (GDD) (Base 10 ºC, April 1-May 24, 2021) is shown in Figure 5.

Figure 4. Growing degree day map (Base 5 °C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the growing season (April 1-May 24, 2021).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (27May2021). Access the full map at https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true
Figure 5. Growing degree day map (Base 10 °C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the growing season (April 1-May 24, 2021).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (27May2021). Access the full map at https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true

Many were uttering the f-word this past week… several areas were on the receiving end of frost and many folks are still watching to see how their crops recover. The lowest temperatures recorded ranged from <-14 to >0 °C (Fig. 6) while the highest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days ranged from <11 to >25 °C (Fig. 7).

Figure 6. Lowest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days (May 20-26, 2021).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (27May2021). Access the full map at https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true
Figure 7. Highest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days (May 12-18, 2021).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (19May2021). Access the full map at https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true

PRECIPITATION: This week average precipitation for the prairies was 17 mm (Fig. 8). Last week the average was less than 2 mm. Conditions continued to be dry in a large region bounded by Swift Current, Saskatoon and Vegreville as well as central and northern areas of the Peace River region. Rainfall amounts for the period of April 24-May 23 (30-day accumulation) were 88 % of long-term average values. Rainfall was greatest for large areas of Alberta, southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba (Table 1; Fig. 9). Average growing season (April 1 – May 23) precipitation was 86 % of normal (Table 1; Fig. 10). The map indicates that conditions continue to be very dry across the Peace River region, east-central Alberta, and west-central Saskatchewan.

Figure 8. 7-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of May 17-23, 2021.
Figure 9. 30-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 24-May 23, 2021.
Figure 10. Growing season cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1-May 23, 2021.

The maps above are all produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Growers can bookmark the AAFC Current Conditions Maps for the growing season. Historical weather data can be access at the AAFC Drought Watch Historical website, Environment Canada’s Historical Data website, or your provincial weather network.

Access ALL the PPMN’s Wind Trajectory reports (Weekly and Daily).

Access Environment and Climate Change Canada’s weather radar mapping interface. Options to access preceeding precipitation events include clicking off either an 1 or 3 hours time interval, using an 8-colour or 14-colour index. or changing the base map.

Weekly Wind Trajectory Report for May 20

Access background information for how and why wind trajectories are monitored in this post.

1. REVERSE TRAJECTORIES (RT)
Since May 1, 2021 the majority of reverse trajectories that have crossed the prairies originated from the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon and Washington). This week there have been an increasing number of reverse trajectories that moved north from Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas and Nebraska (Fig. 1). Though these US regions can be a source of diamondback moths, the ECCC models predict air movement, not actual occurrence of diamondback moths. It should also be noted that host plants of diamondback moth include all plants in the Brassicacea family, including cruciferous weeds and volunteer canola. These plants are suitable hosts until canola emerges.

Figure 1. The average number (based on a 5 day running average) of reverse trajectories that have crossed the prairies for
the period of May 1- 20, 2021.

a. Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington) – This week there have been 44 trajectories (27 last week) that have crossed Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan. The majority of Pacific Northwest reverse trajectories usually have been reported to pass over southern Alberta. This growing season, PNW trajectories have crossed all of the prairies (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. Total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, and Washington) and have
crossed the prairies between March 24 and May 20, 2021.

b. Mexico and southwest USA (Texas, California) – This week there have been 15 trajectories that originated in Mexico and the southwestern US that have crossed Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

c. Oklahoma and Texas – This week there have been 16 trajectories that have passed over Manitoba and Saskatchewan (Fig. 3) that originated in Oklahoma or Texas. These are the first trajectories, that originated over Oklahoma and Texas, to enter the prairies during the month of May.

Figure 3. The total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over Oklahoma and Texas and have crossed the
prairies between March 24 and May 20, 2021.

d. Kansas and Nebraska – This week there have been 35 trajectories (8 last week) that originated in Kansas or Nebraska that have passed over Manitoba and Saskatchewan (Fig. 4).

Figure 4. The total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over Kansas and Nebraska and have crossed the
prairies between March 24 and May 20, 2021.

2. FORWARD TRAJECTORIES (FT)
a. Forward trajectories, originating from Mexico and USA, have crossed a number of prairie locations since May 1, 2021. This week, there has been a steady increase in the number of trajectories that are predicted to cross the prairies (Fig. 5). The dates on the graph report when the trajectories originated in the USA (blue bars). These trajectories generally require 3-5 days to enter the prairies (red line). The data suggests that, compared to this week, there may be increased potential for the introduction of DBM to the prairies.

Figure 5. The average number (based on a 5 day running average) of forward trajectories that have crossed the
Canadian prairies for the period of May 1- 20, 2021.

The following map presents the total number of forward trajectories that have crossed the Canadian prairies (since March 24, 2021) (Fig. 6). Results indicate that the greatest number of forward trajectories entering Canada originated from the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington).

Figure 6. The total number of dates with forward trajectories, originating from various regions of the United States and
Mexico, crossed the prairies between March 24 and May 20, 2021.

Earlier in the week, an Alert related to wind trajectories assessed over May 18-19, 2021, was shared by the PPMN. It communicated the anticpated arrival of several air masses arriving across the Canadian prairies over the next few days that originated from multiple areas of USA. Remember, the current WEEKLY REPORT (above) summarizes daily data over a longer, more comprehensive period.

Weather synopsis

TEMPERATURE: This past week the average temperature across the prairies was 2.5 °C warmer than normal (Fig. 1). Temperatures were warmest across the Parkland region in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta.

Figure 1. 7-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of May 10-16, 2021.

The prairie-wide average 30-day temperature (April 17- May 16) was 0.9 °C less than climate normal values. A region from Winnipeg to Saskatoon has been 2 to 4 °C cooler than average. Temperatures have been warmest across southern Alberta (Table 1; Fig. 2).

Figure 2. 30-day average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 17-May 16, 2021.

The 2021 growing season (April 1 – May 16) has been characterized by near normal temperatures. Warmest temperatures were observed in a region between Lethbridge, Saskatoon and Edmonton while coolest temperatures were reported from Manitoba (Table 2; Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Growing season average temperature (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1-May 16, 2021.

The growing degree day map (GDD) (Base 5 ºC, April 1-May 2, 2021) is provided below (Fig. 4) while the growing degree day map (GDD) (Base 10 ºC, April 1-August 9, 2020) is shown in Figure 5.

Figure 4. Growing degree day map (Base 5 °C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the growing season (April 1-May 17, 2021).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (19May2021). Access the full map at https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true
Figure 5. Growing degree day map (Base 10 °C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the growing season (April 1-May 17, 2021).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (19May2021). Access the full map at https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true

At this early point in the growing season, cool temperatures pose the risk of frost but the differences between low and high temperatures can exert stress on plants, particularly when field conditions are dry. The lowest temperatures recorded ranged from <-8 to >6 °C (Fig. 6) while the highest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days ranged from <3 to >28 °C (Fig. 7).

Figure 6. Lowest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days (May 12-18, 2021).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (19May2021). Access the full map at https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true
Figure 7. Highest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days (May 12-18, 2021).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (19May2021). Access the full map at https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true

PRECIPITATION: Seven-day cumulative rainfall amounts indicate that most of the prairies had less than 2 mm of rain in the past week (Fig. 8). Rainfall amounts for the period of April 17-May 16 (30-day accumulation) were 56 % of long-term average values. Rainfall was greatest for southwestern Saskatchewan and across most of Alberta (Table 1; Fig. 9).

Figure 8 . 7-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of May 10-16, 2021.
Figure 9. 30 day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 17-May 16, 2021.

Average growing season (April 1 – May 16) precipitation has been well below average for most of the prairies (35 % less than normal). Saskatoon has reported 4.3 mm (15 % of normal) and most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba have had less than 15 mm (40 % of normal precipitation) (Table 1; Fig. 10).

Figure 10. Growing season cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 1-May 16, 2021.

The maps above are all produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Growers can bookmark the AAFC Current Conditions Maps for the growing season. Historical weather data can be access at the AAFC Drought Watch Historical website, Environment Canada’s Historical Data website, or your provincial weather network.

Access ALL the PPMN’s Wind Trajectory reports (Weekly and Daily).

Access Environment and Climate Change Canada’s weather radar mapping interface. Options to access preceding precipitation events include clicking off either an 1 or 3 hours time interval, using an 8-colour or 14-colour index. or changing the base map.

ALERT – Wind Trajectory Report for May 19

Access background information for how and why wind trajectories are monitored in this earlier post.

Alert: Yesterday and today ECCC models produced results that suggest a number of RT’s for prairie locations. Compared to previous dates, the ECCC model output predicts that trajectories are passing almost the entire prairie region over a very short period of time. The weather forecast may result in downward movement of DBM.

Details: There has been a significant increase in the number of trajectories, originating over a number of states in the USA, that have crossed the prairies (Fig. 1). These air currents may introduce diamondback moths to the prairies. ECCC trajectory models indicate that air trajectories, originating over the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington), have crossed Alberta, Saskatchewan and western Manitoba (Fig. 2). Trajectories originating over Texas and Oklahoma have passed over eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba (Fig. 3). A third group of trajectories, originating across Kansas and Nebraska have also crossed eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba (Fig. 4).

Though these US regions can be a source of diamondback moths, the ECCC models predict air movement, not actual occurrence of diamondback moths. It should also be noted that host plants of diamondback moth include all plants in the Brassicaceae family, including cruciferous weeds and volunteer canola. These plants are suitable hosts until canola emerges.

Action: The ECCC model output predicts that trajectories are passing almost the entire prairie region over a very short period of time. Areas highlighted in green in Figures 2, 3, and 4 of this alert may receive downward movement of DBM very shortly. The presence of any Brassicaceae plant will provide a host for incoming DBM so scout volunteers and emerging canola. If DBM were carried north on air currents it may take a few days for DBM to show up in traps.

Figure 1. Summary of the average number (5 day running average) of reverse trajectories that have crossed the Canadian prairies (May 1-19, 2021) 
Figure 2. The green region indicates the potential for introduction of diamondback moths from the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, and Washington) to the Canadian prairies (May 18-19, 2021).
Figure 3. The green region indicates the potential for introduction of diamondback moths from Texas and Oklahoma to
the Canadian prairies (May 18-19, 2021).
Figure 4. The green region indicates the potential for introduction of diamondback moths from Kansas and Nebraska to the Canadian prairies (May 18-19, 2021).

Weather synopsis

Since April 1, the 2021 growing season has been cooler and dryer than normal. The National Agroclimate Risk Report states that the most significant climate-related risk to agriculture is the dry conditions across the prairie region (access the Spring to April 27, 2021 report).

This past week (May 3-9, 2021), the average temperature across the prairies was 1.3 °C cooler than normal (Fig. 1). Similarly, the average 30-day temperature (April 10-May 9) was 1.7 °C less than climate normal values (Fig. 2). Temperatures have been warmest in southern Alberta (Table 1; Fig. 1-2).

Figure 1. Seven-day average temperature (°C) across the Canadian prairies for the period of May 3-9, 2021.
Figure 2. 30-day average temperature (°C) across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 10-May 9, 2021.

The growing degree day map (GDD) (Base 5 ºC, April 1-May 2, 2021) is provided below (Fig. 3) while the growing degree day map (GDD) (Base 10 ºC, April 1-August 9, 2020) is shown in Figure 4.

Figure 3. Growing degree day map (Base 5 °C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the growing season (April 1-May 11, 2021).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (12May2021). Access the full map at https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true
Figure 4. Growing degree day map (Base 10 °C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the growing season (April 1-May 11, 2021).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (12May2021). Access the full map at https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true

At this early point in the growing season, cool temperatures pose the risk of frost but the differences between low and high temperatures can exert incredible stress on newly germinating plants in field crops. The lowest temperatures recorded ranged from <-59 to >-6 °C (Fig. 5) while the highest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days ranged from <11 to >26 °C (Fig. 6). Wow, what an amazing range – spring is tough!

Figure 5. Lowest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days (May 5-11, 2021).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (12May2021). Access the full map at https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true
Figure 6. Highest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days (May 5-11, 2021).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (12May2021). Access the full map at https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true

Seven-day cumulative rainfall indicates that below normal rain (86% of average) was reported for the prairies (Fig. 7). Over the past seven-days rain totals across most of Alberta and the extreme southwest region of Saskatchewan was 10-20 mm. The rest of the prairies received little or no rain. Rain (30-day accumulation) amounts have been less than average for most of the prairies (81% of average). Rainfall for April 10-May 9, 2021, has been greatest for southeastern Manitoba, southwestern Saskatchewan and across most of Alberta (Table 1; Fig. 8). Average growing season (April 1 to May 9) precipitation has been well below average for most of the prairies. The two large regions (Swift Current to Prince Albert to Vegreville and the western two-thirds of Manitoba) have had less than 40 % of normal precipitation.

Figure 7. Seven-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies the past 30 days (May 3-9, 2021).
Figure 8. 30-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies the past 30 days (April 10-May 9, 2021).

The maps above are all produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Growers can bookmark the AAFC Current Conditions Maps for the growing season. Historical weather data can be access at the AAFC Drought Watch Historical website, Environment Canada’s Historical Data website, or your provincial weather network.

Access ALL the PPMN’s Wind Trajectory reports (Weekly and Daily).

Access Environment and Climate Change Canada’s weather radar mapping interface.

Potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s. Trajectory models are used to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive species, such as diamondback moth. In addition, plant pathologists have shown that trajectories can assist with the prediction of plant disease infestations and are also beginning to utilize these same data. We receive two types of model output from ECCC: reverse trajectories and forward trajectories.

‘Reverse trajectories’ refer to air currents that are tracked back in time from specified Canadian locations over a five-day period prior to their arrival date. Of particular interest are those trajectories that, prior to their arrival in Canada, originated over northwestern and southern USA and Mexico, anywhere diamondback moth populations overwinter and adults are actively migrating. If diamondback adults are present in the air currents that originate from these southern locations, the moths may be deposited on the Prairies at sites along the trajectory, depending on the local weather conditions at the time that the trajectories pass over our area (e.g. rain showers, etc.). Reverse trajectories are the best available estimate of the ”true” 3D wind fields at a specific point. They are based on observations, satellite and radiosonde data.

‘Forward trajectories’ have a similar purpose; however, the modeling process begins at sites in USA & Mexico. The model output predicts the pathway of a trajectory. Again, of interest to us are the winds that eventually end up passing over the Prairies.

Access all the Historical Wind Trajectory Reports.

Weiss1, Vankosky1, Trudel2
1 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
2 Environment and Climate Change Canada

Weekly Wind Trajectory Report (released May 13)

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s. Trajectory models are used to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive species, such as diamondback moth. Read a brief overview of this strategy plus the definitions and applications of both ‘Reverse’ and ‘Forward’ trajectories.

1. REVERSE TRAJECTORIES (RT)
Since May 1, 2021, the majority of reverse trajectories crossing the prairies originated from the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon and Washington). This week, an increasing number of reverse trajectories have been moving north from Kansas and Nebraska (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. The average number (based on a 5-day running average) of reverse trajectories (RTs) that have
crossed the prairies for the period of May 1-13, 2021.

a. Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington) – The majority of Pacific Northwest reverse trajectories have been reported to pass over southern Alberta (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. Total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over the Pacific Northwest (PNW including Idaho, Oregon, and Washington) that have crossed the prairies between March 24 and May 13, 2021.

b. Mexico and southwest USA (Texas, California) – Since last week there have not been any trajectories that originated in these areas that have crossed the prairies.

c. Oklahoma and Texas – Since last week there have not been any trajectories originating in Oklahoma or Texas that have crossed the prairies.

d. Kansas and Nebraska – This week reverse trajectories were reported for Alberta (Andrew, Sedgewick), Saskatchewan (Gainsborough, Grenfell, Kindersley, Regina, Yorkton) and Manitoba (Brandon) (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. The total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over Kansas and Nebraska that have crossed the
prairies between March 24 and May 13, 2021.

2. FORWARD TRAJECTORIES (FT)
Forward trajectories, originating from Mexico and USA have crossed a number of prairie locations since May 1, 2021. Based on average totals (averaged across a five day period), the greatest number of forward trajectories were observed to originate between May 5 and 8 (blue bars) and entered the prairies between May 6-9 (Fig. 4).

Figure 4. The average number (based on a 5 day running average) of forward trajectories that have crossed the
prairies for the period of May 1- 13, 2021.

The following map presents the total number of dates (since March 24, 2021) with forward trajectories that have crossed the Canadian prairies (Fig. 5). Results indicate that the greatest number of forward trajectories entering Canada originated from the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington).

Figure 5. The total number of dates with forward trajectories, originating from various regions of the United States and Mexico, that crossed the prairies between March 24 and May 13, 2021.

Access a PDF version of the full WEEKLY report released May13, 2021.

Wind Trajectory Report for May 10

ECCC trajectory models indicate that air trajectories, originating over the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington), have crossed one Saskatchewan location (Unity) and a number of Alberta locations including Lethbridge, Beiseker, Olds, Provost, Vegreville, Andrew, Grande Prairie, Rycroft and Fort Vermillion.

Access this DAILY one-page report to learn more. Albertans and Saskatchewanians please take note!

Areas highlighted green in this alert may receive incoming winds from the Pacific Northwest of the USA very shortly! Remember, host plants of diamondback moth include all plants in the Brassicacea family, including cruciferous weeds and volunteer canola. These plants are suitable hosts until canola emerges. 

ALERT – Wind Trajectory Report for May 7

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) trajectory models indicate that air trajectories, originating over the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington), have crossed a number of Alberta locations including Lethbridge, Beiseker, Olds, Manning, Rycroft, and Wanham.

Access this special one-page alert to learn more. Albertans please take note!

Action: Areas highlighted green in this alert may receive incoming winds from the Pacific Northwest of the USA very shortly so please deploy diamondback pheromone traps as soon as possible!

Weather synopsis

Since April 1, the 2021 growing season has been cooler and dryer than normal. This past week (April 26-May 2, 2021), the average temperature across the prairies was approximately 0.5 °C cooler than normal. Similarly, the average 30-day temperature (April 3- May 2) was 0.6 °C less than climate normal values. Temperatures have been warmest in southern Alberta. Seven day cumulative rainfall indicates that below normal rain (79% of average) was reported for the prairies.

Figure 1. 7-day average temperature (°C) across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 26-May 2, 2021.
Figure 2. 30-day average temperature (°C) across the Canadian prairies for the period of April 3-May 2, 2021.

The growing degree day map (GDD) (Base 5 ºC, April 1-May 2, 2021) is below (Fig. 3) while the growing degree day map (GDD) (Base 10 ºC, April 1-August 9, 2020) is shown in Figure 4.

Figure 3. Growing degree day map (Base 5 °C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the growing season (April 1-May 3, 2021).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (06May2021). Access the full map at https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true
Figure 4. Growing degree day map (Base 10 °C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the growing season (April 1-May 3, 2021).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (06May2021). Access the full map at https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true

At this early point in the growing season, cool temperatures pose the risk of frost but the differences between low and high temperatures can exert incredible stress on newly germinating plants in field crops. The lowest temperatures ranged from <-14 to >0 °C (Fig. 5) while the highest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days ranged from <3 to >24 °C (Fig. 6).

Figure 5. Lowest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days (April 29-May 5, 2021).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (06May2021). Access the full map at https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true
Figure 6. Highest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days (April 29-May 5, 2021).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (06May2021). Access the full map at https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true

Rain (30-day accumulation) amounts have been less than average for most of the prairies (75 % of average; Fig. 7). Rainfall for April 3-May 2, 2021, has been greatest for southeastern Manitoba and the extreme southwest of Alberta (Fig. 8).

Figure 7. 30-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies the past 30 days (April 1-May 2, 2021).
Figure 8. Seven-day cumulative rainfall (mm) observed across the Canadian prairies the past 30 days (April 26-May 2, 2021).

The maps above are all produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Growers can bookmark the AAFC Current Conditions Maps for the growing season. Historical weather data can be access at the AAFC Drought Watch Historical website, Environment Canada’s Historical Data website, or your provincial weather network.

Access the PPMN’s Weekly Wind Trajectory report released May 5, 2021.

FYI: Environment and Climate Change Canada updated the weather radar mapping interface recently.

Weekly Wind Trajectory Report (released May 5)

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s. Trajectory models are used to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive species, such as diamondback moth.

Access a PDF version of the full report for May 5, 2021.

Weather synopsis

An abbreviated synopsis is provided for the final Weekly Update of the 2020 growing season. It was a warm week for most of the prairies! The highest temperatures the past seven days across the prairies are represented in Figure 1 and ranged from <22 to >35 °C.

Figure 1. Highest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days (April 1-August 19, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (20Aug2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209

All those high temperatures advanced the accumulation of heat units across the prairies. The growing degree day map (GDD) (Base 5 ºC, April 1-August 17, 2020) is below (Fig. 2) while the growing degree day map (GDD) (Base 10 ºC, April 1-August 17, 2020) is shown in Figure 3.

Figure 2. Growing degree day map (Base 5 °C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the growing season (April 1-August 17, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (20Aug2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209
Figure 3. Growing degree day map (Base 10 °C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the growing season (April 1-August 17, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (20Aug2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209

So far this growing season, the number of days above 25 °C ranges from 0-10 days in the northwest of the prairies then increases up to 61-70 days in southern Manitoba (Fig. 4). In comparison, the number of days above 30 °C ranges up to 25-27 days in southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba (Fig. 5)

Figure 4. Number of days above 25 °C observed across the Canadian prairies this growing season (April 1-August 19, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (20Aug2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209
Figure 5. Number of days above 30 °C observed across the Canadian prairies this growing season (April 1-August 19, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (20Aug2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209

As fields continue to mature in late August and in to September, growers will be watching for cool evenings. The lowest temperatures the past seven days across the prairies are represented in Figure 6 and ranged from <1 to >13 °C.

Figure 6. Lowest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days (April 1-August 19, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (20Aug2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209

Cumulative rainfall for the past 7 days was lowest across central and southern regions of Alberta and Saskatchewan while western and northern areas of the Peace River region AND eastern Saskatchewan plus much of Manitoba received more moisture (Fig. 7). Cumulative 30-day (Fig. 8) and rainfall for the growing season (April 1-August 19, 2020; Fig. 9) are below.

Figure 7. Observed cumulative precipitation across the Canadian prairies the past seven days (as of August 19, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (20Aug2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209
Figure 8. Observed cumulative precipitation across the Canadian prairies the past 30 days (as of August 19, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (20Aug2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209
Figure 9. Observed cumulative precipitation across the Canadian prairies for the growing season (as of August 19, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (20Aug2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209

The maps above are all produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Growers can bookmark the AAFC Current Conditions Drought Watch Maps for the growing season. Historical weather data can be access at the AAFC Drought Watch website, Environment Canada’s Historical Data website, or your provincial weather network.

Weather synopsis

This past week (Aug 4-10, 2020) conditions were generally warm and dry. Weekly prairie temperatures were warmest across Manitoba and Saskatchewan (Fig. 1). Lower temperatures were observed across western and northwestern Alberta (Fig. 1). Though average 30-day (July 12 – August 10, 2020) temperatures continue to be cooler in Alberta than eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba (Fig. 2), temperature anomalies (mean temperature difference from average; July 14-August 10, 2020) indicate that conditions have generally been warmer than average across most of Alberta as well as Parkland regions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (Fig. 3).

Figure 1. Observed average temperatures across the Canadian prairies the past seven days (August 4-10, 2020).
Figure 2. Observed average temperatures across the Canadian prairies the past 30 days (July 12-August 10, 2020).
Figure 3. Mean temperature difference from Normal the past 30 days (July 14-August 12, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (12Aug2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209

Regions in southeastern central and southern Saskatchewan and across southern Manitoba have reported temperatures that have been up to 2 °C cooler than average. Based on growing season temperatures (April 1-August 10, 2020) temperatures were warmest across the southern prairies (Fig. 4). Based on growing season temperature deviations (observed temperatures compared with climate normal temperatures), below average temperatures have been observed across central and western regions of Saskatchewan and central regions of Alberta (Fig. 5). Across southern Alberta and most of Manitoba, temperatures have generally been above average. (Fig. 5)

Figure 4. Observed average temperatures across the Canadian prairies for the growing season (April 1-August 10, 2020).
Figure 5. Observed difference from average temperatures across the Canadian prairies for the growing season (April 1-August 10, 2020).

Most areas reported 7-day cumulative rainfall amounts that were less than 10 mm (Fig. 6). Cumulative 30-day rainfall was lowest across a large area ranging across southern Alberta as well as central and western regions of Saskatchewan (Fig. 7). Growing season rainfall (percent of average) is highly variable across the prairies (Fig. 8). Rainfall has been below normal across most of Saskatchewan as well as southern Alberta, and the Peace River region (Fig. 8).

Figure 6. Observed cumulative precipitation across the Canadian prairies the past seven days (August 4-10, 2020).
Figure 7. Observed cumulative precipitation across the Canadian prairies the past 30 days (July 12-August 10, 2020).
Figure 8. Percent of average precipitation for the growing season (April 1-August 10, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (12Aug2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209

The growing degree day map (GDD) (Base 5 ºC, April 1-August 9, 2020) is below (Fig. 9) while the growing degree day map (GDD) (Base 10 ºC, April 1-August 9, 2020) is shown in Figure 10.

Figure 9. Growing degree day map (Base 5 °C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the growing season (April 1-August 9, 2020).
Figure 10. Growing degree day map (Base 10 °C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the growing season (April 1-August 9, 2020).

The highest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days ranged from <17 to >34 °C (Fig. 11) while the lowest temperatures ranged from <-1 to >13 °C (Fig. 12). So far this growing season (as of August 12, 2020), the number of days above 25 °C ranges from 0-10 days in the west (to west of Calgary, west and north of central Alberta and extending into the south and west of the Peace River region) but extends up to 51-60 days in southern Manitoba (Fig. 13).

Figure 11. Highest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days (April 1-August 12, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (13Aug2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209
Figure 12. Lowest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days (April 1-August 12, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (13Aug2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209
Figure 13. Number of days above 25 °C observed across the Canadian prairies this growing season (April 1-August 12, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (13Aug2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209

The maps above are all produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Growers can bookmark the AAFC Current Conditions Drought Watch Maps for the growing season. Historical weather data can be access at the AAFC Drought Watch website, Environment Canada’s Historical Data website, or your provincial weather network.

Weather synopsis

An abbreviated synopsis of the past week is provided below. Recent warm weather across the Canadian prairies helped crop development this past week

The growing degree day map (GDD) (Base 5 ºC, April 1-July 27, 2020) is below (Fig. 1) while the growing degree day map (GDD) (Base 10 ºC, April 1-July 27, 2020) is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1. Growing degree day map (Base 5 °C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the growing season (April 1-July 27, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (30Jul2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209
Figure 2. Growing degree day map (Base 10 °C) observed across the Canadian prairies for the growing season (April 1-July 27, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (30Jul2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209

The highest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days ranged from <22 to >34 °C (Fig. 3). So far this growing season (up to July 29, 2020), the number of days above 25 ranges from 0-10 days throughout much of Alberta and into the BC Peace then extends up to 41-50 days in southern Manitoba (Fig. 4).

Figure 3. Highest temperatures (°C) observed across the Canadian prairies the past seven days (April 1-July 29, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (30Jul2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209
Figure 4. Number of days above 25 °C observed across the Canadian prairies this growing season (April 1-July 29, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (30Jul2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209

Cumulative rainfall for the past 7 days was lowest across southern regions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba with the exception of around Regina south to the American border, and southwest Manitoba west into the southeast corner of Saskatchewan (Fig. 5). Cumulative 30-day (Fig. 6) and rainfall for the growing season (April 1-July 29, 2020; Fig. 7) are below.

Figure 5. Observed cumulative precipitation across the Canadian prairies the past seven days (as of July 29, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (30Jul2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209
Figure 6. Observed cumulative precipitation across the Canadian prairies the past 30 days (as of July 29, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (30Jul2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209
Figure 7. Observed cumulative precipitation across the Canadian prairies for the growing season (as of July 29, 2020).
Image has not been reproduced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of the Government of Canada and was retrieved (30Jul2020). Access the full map at http://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true&reset=1588297059209

The maps above are all produced by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Growers can bookmark the AAFC Current Conditions Drought Watch Maps for the growing season. Historical weather data can be access at the AAFC Drought Watch website, Environment Canada’s Historical Data website, or your provincial weather network.