Wind trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.

The entire list of 2020 Wind Trajectory Reports is available here.

→ Read the WEEKLY Wind Trajectory Report for Wk10 (released June 22, 2020).

Wind Trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.

The entire list of 2020 Wind Trajectory Reports is available here.

→ Read the WEEKLY Wind Trajectory Report for Wk08 (released June 15, 2020).

Wind trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.

The entire list of 2020 Wind Trajectory Reports is available here.

→ Read the WEEKLY Wind Trajectory Report for Wk07 (released June 8, 2020).

Wind trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.

The entire list of 2020 Wind Trajectory Reports is available here.

→ Read the WEEKLY Wind Trajectory Report for Wk06 (released June 1, 2020).

Wind trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.

The entire list of 2020 Wind Trajectory Reports is available here.

→ Read the WEEKLY Wind Trajectory Report for Wk05 (released May 25, 2020).

Wind trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.

The entire list of 2020 Wind Trajectory Reports is available here.

→ Read the WEEKLY Wind Trajectory Report for Wk04 (released May 18, 2020).

→ Read the DAILY Wind Trjectory Reports for Wk04 (released May 20 and May 21).

Wind trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.

Access the 2020 Wind Trajectory Reportsfor the first WEEKLY REPORT (11 May 2020).

New – Review the DAILY REPORT (released 15May2020).

Wind trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.

Find the first WEEKLY report (available 11 May 2020).

Wind trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.

Data not available this week.

Wind Trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990’s.

In a continuing effort to produce timely information, the wind trajectory reports are available in two forms:

Wind Trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.

In a continuing effort to produce timely information, the wind trajectory reports are available in two forms:

Wind Trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.

In a continuing effort to produce timely information, the wind trajectory reports are available in two forms:

Wind Trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.

In a continuing effort to produce timely information, the wind trajectory reports are available in two forms:

Wind Trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.

In a continuing effort to produce timely information, the wind trajectory reports are available in two forms:

Wind Trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.

In a continuing effort to produce timely information, the wind trajectory reports are available in two forms:

Wind Trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.

In a continuing effort to produce timely information, the wind trajectory reports are available in two forms:

Wind Trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.

In a continuing effort to produce timely information, the wind trajectory reports are available in two forms:

Wind trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s. Trajectory models are used to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive species, such as diamondback moth.  In addition, plant pathologists have shown that trajectories can assist with the prediction of plant disease infestations and are also beginning to utilize these same data. We receive two types of model output from ECCC: reverse trajectories and forward trajectories.

‘Reverse trajectories’ (RT) refer to air currents that are tracked back in time from specified Canadian locations over a five-day period prior to their arrival date.  Of particular interest are those trajectories that, prior to their arrival in Canada, originated over northwestern and southern USA and Mexico, anywhere diamondback moth populations overwinter and adults are actively migrating.  If diamondback adults are present in the air currents that originate from these southern locations, the moths may be deposited on the Prairies at sites along the trajectory, depending on the local weather conditions at the time that the trajectories pass over our area (e.g. rain showers, etc.). Reverse trajectories are the best available estimate of the ”true” 3D wind fields at a specific point. They are based on observations, satellite and radiosonde data.

‘Forward trajectories’ (FT) have a similar purpose; however, the modelling process begins at sites in USA & Mexico. The model output predicts the pathway of a trajectory. Again, of interest to us are the winds that eventually end up passing over the Prairies.

Ross Weiss (AAFC), Meghan Vankosky (AAFC) and Serge Trudel (ECCC)

DATE: APRIL 30, 2019

1. Reverse trajectories (RT)

a.  Pacific Northwest (PNW) – For the period of April 24-30 there have been 18 RTs (originating over ID, OR and WA) that have crossed over prairie locations.  By comparison, for the period of April  17-23 there were 51 RT’s. The majority PNW RTs have been reported to pass over southern AB.  Since March 23rd  Lethbridge AB has reported the highest number of PNW RTs (n=22), Beiseker AB  (n=15) and Olds AB (n=31).

Figure 1.  Daily total number of reverse trajectories (RTs) originating over Idaho, Oregon, and Washington that have crossed the Canadian prairies as of April 30, 2019.
Figure 2.  Total number of dates with PNW reverse trajectories originating over Idaho, Oregon, and Washington that have crossed the Canadian prairies (since March 23, 2019).
Figure 3.  List of PNW (Idaho, Oregon, and Washington) reverse trajectories that have crossed the prairies (since March 23, 2019).

b.  Mexico and SW USA (TX, CA) – No trajectories, originating over Mexico or southwest USA have crossed the prairies for the period of April 24-30, 2019. Since March 23, 2019 there have been 5 reverse trajectories that originated over Mexico, CA and TX. All five occurred on April 7.

c.  Texas and Oklahoma – No trajectories, originating over TX or OK have crossed the prairies for the period of April 24-30, 2019.  Since March 23, 2019 there have been 18 reverse trajectories that have originated over OK and TX. Most of these trajectories have crossed eastern SK and MB.

2.  Forward trajectories (FT) – 

The following table reports the origin of forward trajectories predicted to cross the prairies over the next five days (Note: ‘InitialDate’ refers to when the forward trajectory crossed the source location. Trajectories are predicted to cross prairie locations within five days of the initial date).  

In a continuing effort to produce timely information, wind trajectory reports will be available both DAILY and WEEKLY:

Weather forecasts (7 day):

Wind Trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s. Trajectory models are used to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive species, such as diamondback moth.  In addition, plant pathologists have shown that trajectories can assist with the prediction of plant disease infestations and are also beginning to utilize these same data. We receive two types of model output from ECCC: reverse trajectories and forward trajectories.

‘Reverse trajectories’ (RT) refer to air currents that are tracked back in time from specified Canadian locations over a five-day period prior to their arrival date.  Of particular interest are those trajectories that, prior to their arrival in Canada, originated over northwestern and southern USA and Mexico, anywhere diamondback moth populations overwinter and adults are actively migrating.  If diamondback adults are present in the air currents that originate from these southern locations, the moths may be deposited on the Prairies at sites along the trajectory, depending on the local weather conditions at the time that the trajectories pass over our area (e.g. rain showers, etc.). Reverse trajectories are the best available estimate of the ”true” 3D wind fields at a specific point. They are based on observations, satellite and radiosonde data.

‘Forward trajectories’ (FT) have a similar purpose; however, the modelling process begins at sites in USA & Mexico. The model output predicts the pathway of a trajectory. Again, of interest to us are the winds that eventually end up passing over the Prairies.

Ross Weiss (AAFC), Meghan Vankosky (AAFC) and Serge Trudel (ECCC)

DATE: APRIL 24, 2019

Reverse trajectories (RT)

a. Pacific Northwest (PNW) – For the period of April 17-23, 2019, there have been 55 RT’s (originating over ID, OR and WA) that have crossed over prairie locations (Figs. 1 and 2).  By comparison, for the period of April  10-16, 2019, there were 31 RT’s. The majority PNW RT’s have been reported to pass over southern AB.  Since March 23rd, Lethbridge AB has reported the highest number of PNW RT’s (n=20), Beiseker AB  (n=15) and Gainsborough SK (n=11).

Figure 1.  Daily total number of reverse trajectories originating over ID, OR, and WA that have crossed the prairies.
Figure 2. Total number of dates with PNW reverse trajectories originating over ID, OR, and WA that have crossed the prairies (since March 23, 2019).

b. Mexico and SW USA (TX, CA) – No trajectories, originating over Mexico or southwest USA have crossed the prairies for the period of April 17-23, 2019. Since March 23, 2019 there have been 5 reverse trajectories that originated over Mexico, CA and TX. All five occurred on April 7, 2019.

c. Texas and Oklahoma – No trajectories, originating over TX or OK have crossed the prairies for the period of April 17-23, 2019.  Since March 23, 2019 there have been 18 reverse trajectories that have originated over OK and TX (Fig. 3). Most of these trajectories have crossed eastern SK and MB.

Figure 3.  Total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over OK and TX that have crossed the prairies (since March 23, 2019).

d. Nebraska and Kansas – No trajectories, originating over KS or NE have crossed the prairies for the period of April 17-23, 2019.  Since March 23, 2019 there have been 18 reverse trajectories that have originated over KS and NE (Fig. 4).

Figure 4. Total number of dates with reverse trajectories originating over KS and NE that have crossed the prairies (since March 23, 2019).

In a continuing effort to produce timely information, wind trajectory reports will be available both DAILY and WEEKLY:

Wind Trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.

In a continuing effort to produce timely information, the wind trajectory reports will be available both DAILY and WEEKLY:

Wind Trajectories

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s. Trajectory models are used to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive species, such as diamondback moth.  In addition, plant pathologists have shown that trajectories can assist with the prediction of plant disease infestations and are also beginning to utilize these same data. We receive two types of model output from ECCC: reverse trajectories and forward trajectories.

‘Reverse trajectories’ (RT) refer to air currents that are tracked back in time from specified Canadian locations over a five-day period prior to their arrival date.  Of particular interest are those trajectories that, prior to their arrival in Canada, originated over northwestern and southern USA and Mexico, anywhere diamondback moth populations overwinter and adults are actively migrating.  If diamondback adults are present in the air currents that originate from these southern locations, the moths may be deposited on the Prairies at sites along the trajectory, depending on the local weather conditions at the time that the trajectories pass over our area (e.g. rain showers, etc.). Reverse trajectories are the best available estimate of the ”true” 3D wind fields at a specific point. They are based on observations, satellite and radiosonde data.

‘Forward trajectories’ (FT) have a similar purpose; however, the modelling process begins at sites in USA & Mexico. The model output predicts the pathway of a trajectory. Again, of interest to us are the winds that eventually end up passing over the Prairies.

Ross Weiss (AAFC), Meghan Vankosky (AAFC) and Serge Trudel (ECCC)

DATE: APRIL 8, 2019

1.  Reverse trajectories (RT):
a.  Pacific Northwest (PNW) – For the period of April 2-8 there have been 69 RT’s (originating over the PNW) that have crossed over prairie locations.  Since March 23rd  Lethbridge has reported the highest number of PNW RT’s (n=9), followed by Olds AB, Beiseker AB and Dauphin MB (n=6).

List of PNW Reverse trajectories that have crossed the prairies (Since March 23, 2019):

b.  Mexico and SW USA (SW) – On April 7 the first Southwestern USA and Mexico RT’s crossed the prairies. These reverse trajectories originated over TX and CA.

The following maps present two examples of April 7, 2019 RT’s. The first map indicates that the RT crossing Tisdale originated across southern TX. The second map shows that two RT’s crossed over Regina. The red line indicates that this RT originated over southern TX. A second RT originated across central CA.

Tisdale SK, April 7, 2019

Regina SK, April 7, 2019

2.  Forward trajectories (FT) – 

The following table reports the origin of forward trajectories predicted to cross the prairies over the next five days.  Forward trajectories, originating over Santa Maria, CA are predicted to pass over SK and MB in the next five days.

Wind trajectories

Background:  Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive agricultural pests.

We receive two types of model output from ECCC: reverse trajectories (RT) and forward trajectories (FT): 

(i) ‘Reverse trajectories’ (RT) refer to air currents that are tracked back in time from specified Canadian locations over a five-day period prior to their arrival date. 

(ii) ‘Forward trajectories’ (FT) have a similar purpose; however, the modelling process begins at sites in USA and Mexico. The model output predicts the pathway of a trajectory. Again, of interest are the winds that eventually end up passing over the Prairies. 

Current Data
Since April 1. 2018, the majority of Pacific Northwest (PNW) air currents have crossed over southern AB (Fig. 1). The cumulative number of wind dispersal events for June 1 – 11, 2018 (181) is greater than the long term (2007 – 2017) average (98).

Figure 1.  Total reverse trajectories (originating from US – PNW) April 1 – June 11, 2018.



Since April 1, the majority of air currents from southwest USA and Mexico have crossed over eastern SK and western MB (Fig. 2). So far there have been 18 RT’s (June 1 – 11, 2018) and compares with 2017 (3) and the long term average (24). 

Figure 2.  Total number of reverse trajectories (originating from southern USA) April 1 – June 11, 2018.





Weather forecasts (7 day):

Wind trajectories

Background:  Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive agricultural pests.

We receive two types of model output from ECCC: reverse trajectories (RT) and forward trajectories (FT): 

(i) ‘Reverse trajectories’ (RT) refer to air currents that are tracked back in time from specified Canadian locations over a five-day period prior to their arrival date. 

(ii) ‘Forward trajectories’ (FT) have a similar purpose; however, the modelling process begins at sites in USA and Mexico. The model output predicts the pathway of a trajectory. Again, of interest are the winds that eventually end up passing over the Prairies. 

Current Data
The number of Reverse Trajectories (RTs), crossing the prairies in May 2018, was lower than the long term average (2007 – 2017). The total number of incoming trajectories (sum of Pacific Northwest and southwest USA/Mexico) for 2018 was less than similar values for 2017 and 2007 – 2017. Based on RTs by region, the number of RTs from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) was less than 2007 – 2017 and 2017. To date, the RTs originating in the southwest USA/Mexico in 2018, have been greater in number than in 2017 and less than the long term average (Fig. 1).

Figure 1.  Total number of reverse trajectories by geographic region (Pacific Northwest and
Mexico and the southwest USA) for May 2018.

Weather forecasts (7 day):

Wind trajectories

Background:  Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive agricultural pests.


We receive two types of model output from ECCC: reverse trajectories (RT) and forward trajectories (FT): 

(i) ‘Reverse trajectories’ (RT) refer to air currents that are tracked back in time from specified Canadian locations over a five-day period prior to their arrival date. 

(ii) ‘Forward trajectories’ (FT) have a similar purpose; however, the modelling process begins at sites in USA and Mexico. The model output predicts the pathway of a trajectory. Again, of interest are the winds that eventually end up passing over the Prairies. 


Current Data


Since May 21, 2018, the number of incoming trajectories (RTs) crossing the prairies has increased, particularly from California, Texas and Mexico (Fig. 1). The increased number of reverse trajectories could result in increased introductions of insects into the prairies.

Figure 1.  Daily total number of reverse trajectories, originating over the Pacific Northwest AND
Southwest of the USA, that have entered the Canadian prairies (May 1-28, 2018).





Weather forecasts (7 day):

Wind trajectories

Background.  Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive agricultural pests. 

We receive two types of model output from ECCC: reverse trajectories (RT) and forward trajectories (FT): 


(i) ‘Reverse trajectories’ (RT) refer to air currents that are tracked back in time from specified Canadian locations over a five-day period prior to their arrival date. 


(ii) ‘Forward trajectories’ (FT) have a similar purpose; however, the modelling process begins at sites in USA and Mexico. The model output predicts the pathway of a trajectory. Again, of interest are the winds that eventually end up passing over the Prairies. 

Current Data

Pacific Northwest (PNW) – The total number of RT’s from the Pacific Northwest of the United States, for the period between May 1 – 22, 2018, was n=67.  This was significantly less than in 2017 (n=226), as well as the long term average (n=166) (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. Daily total number of reverse trajectories originating over the Pacific Northwest of
the United States that have entered the prairies (May 1-22, 2018).

Weather forecasts (7 day):

Wind trajectories

Background.  Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990’s. Trajectory models are used to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive species, such as diamondback moth.  In addition, plant pathologists have shown that trajectories can assist with the prediction of plant disease infestations and are also beginning to utilize these same data. 


We receive two types of model output from ECCC: reverse trajectories (RT) and forward trajectories (FT): 
(i) Reverse trajectories refer to air currents that are tracked back in time from specified Canadian locations over a five-day period prior to their arrival date.  Of particular interest are those trajectories that, prior to their arrival in Canada, originated over northwestern and southern USA and Mexico, anywhere diamondback moth populations overwinter and adults are actively migrating.  If diamondback adults are present in the air currents that originate from these southern locations, the moths may be deposited on the Prairies at sites along the trajectory, depending on the local weather conditions at the time that the trajectories pass over our area (e.g. rain showers, etc.). RTs are the best available estimate of 3D wind fields at a specific point. They are based on observations, satellite and radiosonde data. 

(ii) Forward trajectories have a similar purpose; however, the modelling process begins at sites in USA and Mexico. The model output predicts the pathway of a trajectory. Again, of interest to us are the winds that eventually end up passing over the Prairies. 

Current Data

Pacific Northwest (PNW) – The number of RTs, predicted to cross the prairies, has increased over the past week (Fig. 1). Though there has been an increase, results for May 1-14 predicted that 38 PNW reverse trajectories (RT) have crossed the prairies. This total is less than the average number 107 (based on 2007-2017) and well below last year’s results (155). 

Figure 1. Daily total of reverse trajectories (RT) originating over the Pacific Northwest that
have entered the prairies during April 2018.

Weather forecasts (7 day):

Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html
Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html 

Wind trajectories

Background.  Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990’s. Trajectory models are used to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive species, such as diamondback moth.  In addition, plant pathologists have shown that trajectories can assist with the prediction of plant disease infestations and are also beginning to utilize these same data. 



We receive two types of model output from ECCC: reverse trajectories (RT) and forward trajectories (FT): 
(i) Reverse trajectories refer to air currents that are tracked back in time from specified Canadian locations over a five-day period prior to their arrival date.  Of particular interest are those trajectories that, prior to their arrival in Canada, originated over northwestern and southern USA and Mexico, anywhere diamondback moth populations overwinter and adults are actively migrating.  If diamondback adults are present in the air currents that originate from these southern locations, the moths may be deposited on the Prairies at sites along the trajectory, depending on the local weather conditions at the time that the trajectories pass over our area (e.g. rain showers, etc.). RTs are the best available estimate of 3D wind fields at a specific point. They are based on observations, satellite and radiosonde data. 


(ii) Forward trajectories have a similar purpose; however, the modelling process begins at sites in USA and Mexico. The model output predicts the pathway of a trajectory. Again, of interest to us are the winds that eventually end up passing over the Prairies. 


Current Data

Pacific Northwest (PNW) – The number of RTs predicted to cross the prairies from the PNW, has increased over the last few days. Model runs for May 7th predicted that seven RTs will cross over AB and SK in the next 24 hours from the PNW. Based on results for April, there have been fewer RTs in 2018 than 2017. The number of RTs were greatest across southern AB (Fig. 1). The majority of these crossed the prairies in mid-April (Fig. 2).

Figure 1. Total number of reverse trajectories, originating over the US PNW, that
has entered the prairies during April, 2018.
Figure 2. Daily total number of reverse trajectories, originating over the US PNW, that
have entered the prairies during April, 2018.



Weather forecasts (7 day):

Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html
Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html 

2017 Wind Trajectories

THE WEEK OF JUNE 15, 2017


Reverse trajectories (RT)
There were 139 reverse trajectories that were predicted to pass across Alberta and Saskatchewan from the Pacific Northwest between May 26 and June 8.  

Forward trajectories (FT) 
The following map indicates the origin of forward trajectories predicted to cross the prairies over the next five days. There have been an increased number of winds that have crossed the prairies from the southwest USA and Mexico since June 1.


2017 Wind Trajectories

THE WEEK OF MAY 29, 2017:  Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of May 23, 2017:

Reverse trajectories (RT)

Overall, the number of RTs entering the prairies from the Pacific
Northwest has been lower than average. The map (Fig. 1) shows that the greatest number
of RTs from the Pacific Northwest continued to be across southern Alberta.


Figure 1. Number of Reverse Trajectories (RT) originating in the Pacific Northwest that
arrived at sites across the Canadian prairies from April 1-May 29, 2017.


Weather forecasts (7 day):

2017 Wind Trajectories

THE WEEK OF MAY 23, 2017:  Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of May 23, 2017:

Reverse trajectories (RT)

Between May 16 and 23 there were 57 RT’s from the Pacific Northwest of USA that crossed the prairies. The first chart (Fig. 1) indicates site specific results for PNW RT’s for each day of the past week. Values reflect the fact that PNW RT’s were lower this week than previous weeks. The greatest number of PNW RT’s continued to be across southern AB (Fig. 2).

Figure 1. Cumulative number of Reverse Trajectories (RT) originating from the Pacific Northwest arriving across the Canadian prairies from May 16-23, 2017 (Olfert et al. 2017).


Figure 2. Number of Reverse Trajectories (RT) originating in the Pacific Northwest that arrived at sites across the Canadian prairies from April 1-May 23, 2017.



Forward trajectories (FT)
No FTs originating from Mexico or southwest USA/Mexico are predicted to cross the prairies over the next 5 days.  The following map provides an overview of FTs that have crossed the prairies during the 2017 growing season.

Figure 2.  Total number of reverse trajectories originating from the Pacific Northwest of the USA arriving at sites across the Canadian prairies (April 1-May 23, 2017).


Weather forecasts (7 day):

Wind Trajectories

THE WEEK OF MAY 15, 2017:  Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of May 15, 2017:

Reverse trajectories (RT)

Wind trajectories have been monitored since April 1 this year.  Wind patterns continue to be similar to previous weeks. The first graph (Fig. 1) indicates that winds from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) passed over Carman MB each day of the past week. Though the number of RTs increased over the past week, the overall pattern  has not changed across the prairies. 

Figure 1. Number of Reverse Trajectories (RT) originating in the Pacific Northwest that have arrived at sites across the Canadian prairies from May 9-15, 2017.



Figure 2 shows that the greatest number of RTs continue to be settling at sites across southern Alberta (e.g., areas highlighted red).

Figure 2.  Total number of reverse trajectories originating from the Pacific Northwest of the USA arriving at sites across the Canadian prairies (April 1-May 15, 2017).
Weather forecasts (7 day):

2017 Wind Trajectories

THE WEEK OF MAY 1, 2017:  Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of May 9, 2017:

Reverse trajectories (RT)

Wind trajectories have been monitored since April 1 this year.  This week there was an increase in the number of RT winds that crossed the prairies from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) of USA.  In Alberta, Grande Prairie and Beiseker had a significant increase in the number of RT winds over this past week (Fig. 1 and 2). In addition to the PNW, there were three prairie locations (Selkirk MB, Unity SK and Olds AB) that had winds originating from California and Texas. 

Figure 1. Weekly cumulative counts of Reverse Trajectories (RT) from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) from May 3-9, 2017 (2017 Olfert et al.).


Figure 2. Total number of RT winds from the Pacific Northwest from April 1-May 9, 2017.

Forward trajectories (FT)
Similar to Reverse Trajectories, most of the model output of Forward Trajectories (FT) have originated from the Pacific Northwest (PNW).  However, a few winds have been forecasted to cross the prairies from the southern USA since April 1, 2017 (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Source destinations and number of FT winds originating from the USA between April 1-May 9, 2017.

Weather forecasts (7 day):
Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html
Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html

2017 Wind Trajectories

THE WEEK OF MAY 1, 2017:  Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of May 1, 2017:

Reverse trajectories (RT)

Wind trajectories have been monitored since April 1 this year.  To date, winds have originated predominantly from the USA – Pacific Northwest (PNW).   Overall results indicate that eastern locations on the prairies have had fewer of these winds than western locations (Figure 1).  Over the last week (April 25- May 1, 2017), Lethbridge has had significantly more RT’s from the Pacific Northwest than either SK and MB sites (Figure 2).  

Figure 1. Summary of reverse trajectory wind data (PNW) for the
prairies April 1-May 1, 2017.
Figure 2. Based on results for specific locations (Brandon,
Saskatoon, Lethbridge), Lethbridge has had significantly more RT’s from the
Pacific Northwest than SK and MB.  


Forward trajectories (FT)
Forward trajectories that were predicted to cross the prairies from the southern USA and Mexico have been limited so far. There were a few isolated days of winds from Santa Maria and Imperial Valley, CA. and from Mexicali, Mexico in mid-April.



Weather forecasts (7 day):
Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html
Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html

Wind Trajectories

THE WEEK OF JUNE 13, 2016:  Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of  June 13, 2016:

Reverse trajectories (RT)
Mexico and southwest USA – This week, Grande Prairie (June 7) had the first report of a Reverse Trajectory crossing over southwest US and Mexico crossing. Other sites included Selkirk, Portage, Carman and Brandon.

The map below represents the distribution of RTs from the prairies that originated over southwest US and Mexico.


Forward trajectories (FT) 
There were 17 Forward Trajectories from southwest US (12) and Mexico (5) that were predicted to cross the prairies over the next five days.



Weather forecasts (7 day):
Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html
Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html


Downloadable versions of the Wind Trajectory Updates are available here.

Wind Trajectories

Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.

THE WEEK OF June 6, 2016:  Nothing to report this week!

Wind Trajectories

Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.


THE WEEK OF June 6, 2016:  Nothing to report this week!

Wind Trajectories

THE WEEK OF MAY 30, 2016:  Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of May 30, 2016:

Reverse trajectories (RT)
Mexico and southwest USA – Gainsborough SK and Carman MB continue to have RT’s that originate across southwestern USA  and Mexico this week.  





The following are RTs originating from the Pacific Northwest of the USA:




Forward trajectories (FT) 
None to report this week. 



Weather forecasts (7 day):
Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html
Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html


Downloadable versions of the Wind Trajectory Updates are available here.

Wind Trajectories

THE WEEK OF MAY 30, 2016:  Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of May 30, 2016:

Reverse trajectories (RT) – Mexico and southwest USA
Gainsborough SK and Carman MB continue to have RT’s that originate across southwestern USA  and Mexico this week.  

Reverse Trajectories originating from Mexico and southwest USA between April 1-May 30, 2016:



Forward trajectories (FT) 
No forward trajectories  from southwestern USA so far this week. 





Weather forecasts (7 day):
Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html
Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html




Downloadable versions of the Wind Trajectory Updates are available here.

Wind Trajectories

THE WEEK OF MAY 24, 2016:  Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of May 24, 2016:


Reverse trajectories (RT) – Mexico and southwest USA
Compared to 2015, the number of reverse trajectories crossing the prairies is greater in 2016.  Since April 1, there have been 18 prairie locations that have had RT’s originating from southwest USA. This compares with 12 for the same time last year. 

Reverse Trajectories originating from Mexico and southwest USA between April 1-May 24, 2016:





…..Compared to last year!






Wind trajectories

2016 Wind Trajectories – High altitude air masses originate from southern locations and continuously move northerly to Canadian destinations. Insect pest species such as Diamondback moth and Aster leafhoppers, traditionally unable to overwinter above the 49th parallel, can utilize these air masses in the spring to move north from Mexico and the United States (southern or Pacific northwest). Data acquired from Environment Canada is compiled by Olfert et al. (AAFC-Saskatoon) to track and model spring high altitude air masses with respect to potential introductions of insect pests onto the Canadian prairies. 

Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.


This week, Reverse Trajectories (RT) originating from southwest USA and Mexico have crossed over more than half of the prairie locations (18 of 29 locations). This week, first reports of these RT’s occurred for Russel MB, Gainsborough SK, Yorkton SK, Grenfell SK, Watrous SK, and Kindersley SK. 








Review earlier 2016 Wind Trajectory Updates in PDF format.


Weather forecasts (7 day):
Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html

Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html

Wind trajectories

2016 Wind Trajectories – High altitude air masses originate from southern locations and continuously move northerly to Canadian destinations. Insect pest species such as Diamondback moth and Aster leafhoppers, traditionally unable to overwinter above the 49th parallel, can utilize these air masses in the spring to move north from Mexico and the United States (southern or Pacific northwest). Data acquired from Environment Canada is compiled by Olfert et al. (AAFC-Saskatoon) to track and model spring high altitude air masses with respect to potential introductions of insect pests onto the Canadian prairies. 

Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.


As of May 9, 2016, Reverse Trajectories (RTs) originating from Mexico and southwest USA have crossed most prairie locations:






Whereas Reverse Trajectories (RTs) originating from northwest USA have arrived over a greater area of the prairies with more RTs arriving in Alberta and the BC Peace:

Review the 2016 Wind Trajectory Updates in PDF format.


Weather forecasts (7 day):
Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html
Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html

Wind Trajectories

THE WEEK OF MAY 9, 2016:  Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of May 9, 2016:

Reverse trajectories (RT)
Naicam, Regina, Tisdale (Saskatchewan) and Lethbridge, Beiseker (Alberta) had the first occurrences of Reverse Trajectories this week that originated from southwestern USA and /or Mexico.


Forward Trajectories (FT)
There are four forward trajectories from California and Texas that are predicted to cross the prairies over the next 5 days.  Below is a map of the sites from which the Forward Trajectories originated that crossed the prairies over the past month.


Review the 2016 Wind Trajectory Updates in PDF format.


Weather forecasts (7 day):
Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html
Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html

Wind trajectories

2016 Wind Trajectories – High altitude air masses originate from southern locations and continuously move northerly to Canadian destinations.  Insect pest species such as Diamondback moth and Aster leafhoppers, traditionally unable to overwinter above the 49th parallel, can utilize these air masses in the spring to move north from Mexico and the United States (southern or Pacific northwest).  Data acquired from Environment Canada is compiled by Olfert et al. (AAFC-Saskatoon) to track and model spring high altitude air masses with respect to potential introductions of insect pests onto the Canadian prairies.  

Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.

As of May 2, 2016, Reverse Trajectories (RTs) originating from Mexico and southwest USA have been arriving across the prairies:







Whereas Reverse Trajectories (RTs) originating from northwest USA have arrived over a greater area of the prairies with more RTs  arriving in Alberta and the BC Peace:



Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April and those reports were posted for:

Wind Trajectories

THE WEEK OF APRIL 20-25, 2016:  Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of April 15-20, 2016:


Reverse trajectories (RT)
None to report for this period.


Forward Trajectories (FT)
For several weeks now, the wind model continues to predict that Forward Trajectories, arriving from southwest US and Mexico, will cross the prairies over the next few days. 

Review the 2016 Wind Trajectory Updates in pdf format.




Weather forecasts (7 day):
Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html

Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html

Wind Trajectories

THE WEEK OF APRIL 15-20, 2016:  Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of April 15-20, 2016:

Reverse trajectories (RT)
None to report for this period.
Forward Trajectories (FT)
This week there are again three forward trajectories from southern USA and Mexico that are predicted to cross Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba over the next few days. 

In summary, the following table is a compilation of the number of Forward Trajectories predicted to have crossed the prairies to date, by point of origin.

Weather forecasts (7 day)
Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html
Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html

Wind Trajectories

THE WEEK OF APRIL 10-15, 2016:  Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of April 10-15, 2016:


Reverse trajectories (RT)
None to report for this period.


Forward Trajectories (FT)
The wind trajectory model continues to predict that Forward Trajectories, arriving from the US southwest and Mexico, will cross the prairies over the next few days.





Over the past weeks, the greatest number of Forward Trajectories (n=10) that were predicted to arrive on the prairies came from the Imperial Valley in California.

Wind trajectories

Wind trajectories Related to Diamondback Moth (DBM) and Aster Leafhopper Introductions
BACKGROUND:  Potential wind events capable of carrying insect pests from source areas in the USA can be identified by following trajectories for air parcels through time. High altitude air masses, originating from southern locations, frequently move northerly to Canadian destinations. Insect pest species such as Diamondback moth and Aster leafhoppers, traditionally unable to overwinter above the 49th parallel, can utilize these air masses in the spring to move north from Mexico and the United States (southern or Pacific northwest). Data acquired from Environment Canada is compiled by Olfert et al. (AAFC-Saskatoon) to track and model high altitude air masses in the spring with respect to potential introductions of insect pests onto the Canadian prairies. Each week, backward and forward trajectories are examined with respect to source and destination in the following manner. The forward trajectories are prognostic (5 days into the future) based on forecast wind fields while the backward trajectories are diagnostic and based on analyzed wind fields (5 days previous).
THE WEEK OF APRIL 7-11, 2016:  Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of April 7-11, 2016:

Again, this week there are three forward trajectories from southern USA and Mexico that are predicted to cross the prairies over the next few days.

Reverse trajectories (RT)
None to report this week.
Forward Trajectories (FT)
This week there are again three forward trajectories from southern USA and Mexico that are predicted to cross Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba over the next few days.  Those involved with Diamondback moth pheromone trap monitoring will want to consider deploying their traps.

Weather forecasts (7 day)
Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html
Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html

Wind trajectories

Wind trajectories Related to Diamondback Moth (DBM) and
Aster Leafhopper Introductions
BACKGROUND: 
Potential wind events capable of carrying insect pests from source areas
in the USA can be identified by following trajectories for air parcels through
time. High altitude air masses, originating from southern locations, frequently
move northerly to Canadian destinations. Insect pest species such as
Diamondback moth and Aster leafhoppers, traditionally unable to overwinter
above the 49th parallel, can utilize these air masses in the spring to move
north from Mexico and the United States (southern or Pacific northwest). Data
acquired from Environment Canada is compiled by Olfert et al. (AAFC-Saskatoon)
to track and model high altitude air masses in the spring with respect to
potential introductions of insect pests onto the Canadian prairies. Each week,
backward and forward trajectories are examined with respect to source and
destination in the following manner. The forward trajectories are prognostic (5
days into the future) based on forecast wind fields while the backward
trajectories are diagnostic and based on analyzed wind fields (5 days
previous).
THE WEEK OF APRIL 1-7, 2016:  Wind trajectory data processing by
AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April. 
Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of
origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive
across the Canadian Prairies for the week of April 1-7, 2016:
Reverse trajectories (RT)
None to report this week.
Forward Trajectories (FT)
Trajectories crossing over California and Mexico are
projected to cross Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba this week.  Those involved with Diamondback moth pheromone trap monitoring will want to consider deploying their traps.

Wind Trajectories

Wind
trajectories Related to Diamondback Moth (DBM) and Aster Leafhopper
Introductions to the Canadian Prairies in 2015


BACKGROUND:
  Potential
wind events capable of carrying insect pests from source areas in the USA can
be identified by following trajectories for air parcels through time. 
High
altitude air masses, originating from southern locations, frequently move
northerly to Canadian destinations. Insect pest species such as Diamondback
moth and Aster leafhoppers, traditionally unable to overwinter above the 49th
parallel, can utilize these air masses in the spring to move north from Mexico
and the United States (southern or Pacific northwest).
Wind trajectory
data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff (Weiss & Olfert) began in April.
 Reverse Trajectories track air masses arriving across the
prairies back to their point of origin.  Forward Trajectories predict favorable winds
expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.  
Updated: June 1,
2015
1.  Reverse
trajectories (RT)
Pacific Northwest (PNW) – Relative to the previous week,
there has been an increase in the number of
reverse trajectories that were predicted to cross the prairies over the
last few days (May 30 – 1; May 31 – 10; June 1 – 17).
2.  Forward
trajectories (FT)
 
For the last couple of
weeks the winds originating over southwest USA were generally tracking
eastward, to the Atlantic Ocean. Over the last few days, forward trajectories
are predicted to move north of 49oN before moving in an eastward
direction (e.g. Brownsville TX). Over the next few days these trajectories may
carry insects north to the prairies.
3.  Trajectory
summary for April 1-May 28, 2015
 
Based trajectory data from
April 1 – May 28, 2015, a greater number of trajectories were
predicted to arrive across the prairies originating from the Pacific northwest (Figure 1) compared to southwest USA
(Figure 2).

Figure 1
Figure 2

Wind Trajectories

Wind trajectories Related to Diamondback Moth (DBM) and Aster Leafhopper
Introductions to the Canadian Prairies in 2015

BACKGROUND:
  Potential wind events capable of carrying insect pests
from source areas in the USA can be identified by following trajectories for
air parcels through time. 
High altitude air masses, originating
from southern locations, frequently move northerly to Canadian destinations.
Insect pest species such as Diamondback moth and Aster leafhoppers,
traditionally unable to overwinter above the 49th parallel, can utilize these
air masses in the spring to move north from Mexico and the United States
(southern or Pacific northwest).
Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff (Weiss &
Olfert) began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track air
masses arriving across the prairies back to their point of origin.  Forward
Trajectories
 predict favorable winds expected to arrive
across the Canadian Prairies.  
Updated: May 23-25, 2015
1.  Reverse trajectories (RT)
This week, RTs are originating over the Arctic, tracking south to pass
over South and North Dakota and tracking north into the Canadian prairies.
2.  Forward trajectories (FT) 
This week, Environment Canada models project that FTs crossing the
prairies are expected to originate from the following sites:
Location
Projected
Arrival Dates
BOZEMAN_MONTANA
25/05/2015
EASTERN_WASHINGTON
25/05/2015
MOSCOW_IDAHO
25/05/2015
EASTERN_WASHINGTON
24/05/2015
MANHATTAN_KANSAS
24/05/2015
MOSCOW_IDAHO
24/05/2015
BROWNSVILLE_TEXAS
23/05/2015
EASTERN_WASHINGTON
23/05/2015
MOSCOW_IDAHO
23/05/2015

Wind Trajectories

Wind trajectories Related to
Diamondback Moth (DBM) and Aster Leafhopper Introductions to the Canadian
Prairies in 2015

BACKGROUND:
  Potential wind events
capable of carrying insect pests from source areas in the USA can be identified
by following trajectories for air parcels through time. 
High altitude air masses, originating from southern locations,
frequently move northerly to Canadian destinations. Insect pest species such as
Diamondback moth and Aster leafhoppers, traditionally unable to overwinter
above the 49th parallel, can utilize these air masses in the spring to move
north from Mexico and the United States (southern or Pacific northwest).
Wind trajectory data processing by
AAFC-Saskatoon Staff (Weiss & Olfert) began in April.  Reverse
Trajectories
 track air masses arriving across the prairies back to
their point of origin.  Forward Trajectories predict favorable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.  
Updated: May 20, 2015
1. 
Reverse trajectories (RT)
During the early part of May, reverse
trajectories (RTs) were originating over the Arctic, but have recently shifted
southward.  This week a number of RTs, originating from California, Texas
and Mexico have passed over a number of prairie locations. The following table provides
an overview of were RTs originating across southwest USA and Mexico have
crossed the prairies.
Number
of Dates Reverse Trajectories Were Tracked to these Prairie Sites (between
May 13-20, 2015)
Location
Latitude
Longitude
Number
of Dates
BRANDON_MB
49.8
-99.9
3
SELKIRK_MB
50.1
-96.9
3
YORKTON_SK
51.2
-102.4
2
RUSSELL_MB
50.8
-101.3
2
CARMAN_MB
49.5
-98
2
GRENFELL_SK
50.4
-102.9
2
PORTAGE_MB
50
-98.3
2
LETHBRIDGE_AB
49.7
-112.8
1
KINDERSLEY_SK
51.5
-109.1
1
DAUPHIN_MB
51.1
-100
1
GAINSBOROUGH_SK
49.2
-101.4
1
PROVOST_AB
52.4
-110.3
1
2.  Forward trajectories (FT)
Environment Canada models indicate that
most of the forward trajectories crossing the prairies are expected to
originate over northwestern USA (Pacific).

Wind Trajectories

   Wind trajectories Related to Diamondback Moth (DBM) and Aster Leafhopper Introductions to the Canadian
Prairies in 2015

BACKGROUND:
  Potential wind events capable of carrying insect
pests from source areas in the USA can be identified by following trajectories
for air parcels through time. 
High altitude air masses,
originating from southern locations, frequently move northerly to Canadian
destinations. Insect pest species such as Diamondback moth and Aster
leafhoppers, traditionally unable to overwinter above the 49th parallel, can
utilize these air masses in the spring to move north from Mexico and the United
States (southern or Pacific northwest). 

Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse
Trajectories
 track air masses arriving across the prairies back to
their point of origin.  Forward Trajectories predict
favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.  
    Updated: May 13, 2015
    1. Reverse trajectories (RT) – During April and early
May, reverse trajectories winds were originating over the Pacific Ocean and
tracking in a west to east direction across North America.  Since May 8th
most are now originating over the Arctic.
    a. Pacific Northwest (PNW) –
Nothing to report.
    b. Mexico and southwest USA (SW)
– Nothing to report.
    2. Forward trajectories (FT)
    There are
a number of forward trajectories from southern USA and Mexico predicted to
cross the prairies over the next five days. The Imperial Valley and Mexicali
FTs are predicted to cross southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba.  The Santa
Maria FT is predicted to cross into central Alberta. 

Wind Trajectories

Wind trajectories Related to Diamondback Moth (DBM) and Aster Leafhopper Introductions to the Canadian Prairies in 2015

BACKGROUND:
  Potential wind events capable of carrying insect pests from source areas in the USA can be identified by following trajectories for air parcels through time. High altitude air masses, originating from southern locations, frequently move northerly to Canadian destinations. Insect pest species such as Diamondback moth and Aster leafhoppers, traditionally unable to overwinter above the 49th parallel, can utilize these air masses in the spring to move north from Mexico and the United States (southern or Pacific northwest). 

Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track air masses arriving across the prairies back to their point of origin.  Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.  

Updated: May 4-5, 2015
1. Reverse trajectories
a. Pacific Northwest (PNW) – Between May 1-3, 2015, the predominate air mass source is continues to be the Pacific Northwest.  Reverse trajectories model output for 10 prairie locations and indicated that winds arriving to the Canadian prairies originated from northwest USA between April 25-27, 2015.  


2. Forward trajectories

Between may 1-3, 2015, there were five forward trajectories originating over Texas and California that are predicted to cross over the prairies over the 2-3 days.  An example of forward trajectories for the Santa Maria CA example is below.  Note how air masses are predicted to land in northeast Saskatchewan, northern Manitoba, and into Ontario.


Wind Trajectories

Wind
trajectories Related to Diamondback Moth (DBM) and Aster Leafhopper
Introductions to the Canadian Prairies in 2015

BACKGROUND:
  Potential wind events capable
of carrying insect pests from source areas in the USA can be identified by
following trajectories for air parcels through time. 
High altitude air masses, originating from southern
locations, frequently move northerly to Canadian destinations. Insect pest
species such as Diamondback moth and Aster leafhoppers, traditionally unable to
overwinter above the 49th parallel, can utilize these air masses in the spring
to move north from Mexico and the United States (southern or Pacific
northwest). 

Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse
Trajectories
 track air masses arriving across the prairies back to
their point of origin.  Forward Trajectories predict
favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.  

Updated: April 25-27, 2015
1. Reverse
trajectories
a. Pacific
Northwest (PNW) – 49 Reverse trajectories (RTs) were recorded on the Prairies
from northwest USA between April 25-27, 2015.
b. Mexico
and SW USA (SW) – Five locations (4 in MB and 1 in SK) reported RT’s that
originated from southern Texas over this same time frame.

2. Forward trajectories

Nine forward trajectories are predicted to cross the
prairies from Mexico and the USA over the next five days.

Wind Trajectories

Wind trajectories Related to Diamondback Moth (DBM) and Aster Leafhopper Introductions

Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track air masses arriving across the prairies back to their point of origin.   Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.  

Updated: April 21, 2015
1. Reverse trajectories
a. Pacific Northwest (PNW) – Nothing to report.
b. Mexico and SW USA (SW) – Nothing to report.
2. Forward trajectories

     Three forward trajectories, all from NW USA, are predicted to cross the prairies over the next five days.
Forward Trajectory Count Dates
Location ID
      Initial Date
BOZEMAN_MONTANA
21/04/2015
EASTERN_WASHINGTON   
21/04/2015
MOSCOW_IDAHO
21/04/2015

Wind Trajectories

Wind trajectories Related to Diamondback Moth (DBM) and Aster Leafhopper Introductions


Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track air masses arriving across the prairies back to their point of origin.   Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.  


Updated: April 15, 2015
1. Reverse trajectories
There
were 24 locations in western Canada that had winds originating from
northwestern USA on April 15, 2015. No reverse trajectories originating
from Mexico and southern USA.
2. Forward trajectories
Forward
wind trajectories, originating from northwestern USA and southern USA/Mexico,
are predicted to cross the prairies within the next five days.
Forward Trajectory Count Dates
Location ID
Count Dates
EASTERN_WASHINGTON
12
BOZEMAN_MONTANA
12
MOSCOW_IDAHO
11
SANTA_MARIA_CALIFORNIA
5
MANHATTAN_KANSAS
5
MEXICALI_MEXICO
2
IMPERIAL_VALLEY_CALIFORNIA
2
WESLACO_TEXAS
1
LOUISIANA
1

Wind Trajectories

Wind trajectories
Related to Diamondback Moth (DBM) and Aster Leafhopper Introductions

BACKGROUND:  Potential wind events capable of carrying insect
pests from source areas in the USA can be identified by following trajectories
for air parcels through time.
High altitude air masses, originating
from southern locations, frequently move northerly to Canadian destinations.
Insect pest species such as Diamondback moth and Aster leafhoppers,
traditionally unable to overwinter above the 49th parallel, can utilize these
air masses in the spring to move north from Mexico and the United States
(southern or Pacific northwest). Data acquired from Environment Canada is
compiled by Olfert et al. (AAFC-Saskatoon) to track and model high altitude air
masses in the spring with respect to potential introductions of insect pests
onto the Canadian prairies. Each week, backward and forward trajectories
are examined with respect to source and destination in the following manner.
The
forward trajectories are prognostic (5 days into the future) based on forecast
wind fields while the backward trajectories are diagnostic and based on
analyzed wind fields (5 days previous).




FOR THE WEEK OF APRIL 3-7, 2015:  Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of April 3-7, 2015:


Reverse trajectories (RT) 
Pacific
Northwest (PNW) – The number of reverse trajectories from Prairie locations
with links to the PNW continues to be relatively high. the following 25 locations had RT’s,
originating from the PNW, that crossed the prairies on April 1 and 2, 2015. Of
particular interest were the northern AB locations reported for April
7.


Reverse Trajectories Originating from PNW Arriving at Prairie Locations
Location ID
Arriving Date
(dd-m-year)
Latitude
Longitude
WANHAM_AB
07/04/2015
55.7
-118.4
VEGREVILLE_AB
07/04/2015
53.5
-112
SEDGEWICK_AB
07/04/2015
52.8
-111.7
RYCROFT_AB
07/04/2015
55.8
-118.7
REGINA_SK
07/04/2015
50.5
-104.5
PROVOST_AB
07/04/2015
52.4
-110.3
OLDS_AB
07/04/2015
51.8
-114.1
LETHBRIDGE_AB
07/04/2015
49.7
-112.8
KINDERSLEY_SK
07/04/2015
51.5
-109.1
GRENFELL_SK
07/04/2015
50.4
-102.9
GRANDE_PRAIRIE_AB
07/04/2015
55.2
-118.8
GAINSBOROUGH_SK
07/04/2015
49.2
-101.4
FORT_VERMILION_AB
07/04/2015
58.4
-116
BEISEKER_AB
07/04/2015
51.4
-113.5
ANDREW_AB
07/04/2015
53.9
-112.3
VEGREVILLE_AB
06/04/2015
53.5
-112
SEDGEWICK_AB
06/04/2015
52.8
-111.7
OLDS_AB
06/04/2015
51.8
-114.1
LETHBRIDGE_AB
06/04/2015
49.7
-112.8
GRANDE_PRAIRIE_AB
06/04/2015
55.2
-118.8
BEISEKER_AB
06/04/2015
51.4
-113.5
LETHBRIDGE_AB
05/04/2015
49.7
-112.8
KINDERSLEY_SK
05/04/2015
51.5
-109.1
BEISEKER_AB
05/04/2015
51.4
-113.5
LETHBRIDGE_AB
04/04/2015
49.7
-112.8



Forward Trajectories (FT)
Forward trajectories originating from the following locations are predicted to cross the prairies within the next five days:

  Forward Trajectory source locations predicted to cross the Canadian prairies  
Location ID
Initial Date
(dd-m-year)
BOZEMAN_MONTANA
07/04/2015
EASTERN_WASHINGTON
07/04/2015
IMPERIAL_VALLEY_CALIFORNIA
07/04/2015
MEXICALI_MEXICO
07/04/2015
MOSCOW_IDAHO
07/04/2015
BOZEMAN_MONTANA
06/04/2015
EASTERN_WASHINGTON
06/04/2015
LOUISIANA
06/04/2015
MANHATTAN_KANSAS
06/04/2015
MOSCOW_IDAHO
06/04/2015
SANTA_MARIA_CALIFORNIA
06/04/2015
BOZEMAN_MONTANA
05/04/2015
EASTERN_WASHINGTON
05/04/2015
MANHATTAN_KANSAS
05/04/2015
EASTERN_WASHINGTON
04/04/2015
MANHATTAN_KANSAS
04/04/2015
MOSCOW_IDAHO
04/04/2015
EASTERN_WASHINGTON
03/04/2015
MOSCOW_IDAHO
03/04/2015
The April 6 forward trajectory from Santa Maria, California, is
predicted to cross over southern Alberta on April 11. The forward trajectory from
Mexicali should cross southern Manitoba about April 8. The Imperial Valley trajectory is
predicted to cross southern Manitoba on April 9. 
Though the prairies were forecasted to expect snow (April 7), conditions are
predicted to warm up over the next few days.
Forecast for Lethbridge:
Forecast for Winnipeg: