Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.
The entire list of 2020 Wind Trajectory Reports is available here.
→ Read the WEEKLY Wind Trajectory Report for Wk10 (released June 22, 2020).
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.
The entire list of 2020 Wind Trajectory Reports is available here.
→ Read the WEEKLY Wind Trajectory Report for Wk08 (released June 15, 2020).
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.
The entire list of 2020 Wind Trajectory Reports is available here.
→ Read the WEEKLY Wind Trajectory Report for Wk07 (released June 8, 2020).
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.
The entire list of 2020 Wind Trajectory Reports is available here.
→ Read the WEEKLY Wind Trajectory Report for Wk06 (released June 1, 2020).
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.
The entire list of 2020 Wind Trajectory Reports is available here.
→ Read the WEEKLY Wind Trajectory Report for Wk05 (released May 25, 2020).
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.
The entire list of 2020 Wind Trajectory Reports is available here.
→ Read the WEEKLY Wind Trajectory Report for Wk04 (released May 18, 2020).
→ Read the DAILY Wind Trjectory Reports for Wk04 (released May 20 and May 21).
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.
Access the 2020 Wind Trajectory Reportsfor the first WEEKLY REPORT (11 May 2020).
New – Review the DAILY REPORT (released 15May2020).
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.
Find the first WEEKLY report (available 11 May 2020).
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.
Data not available this week.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990’s.
In a continuing effort to produce timely information, the wind trajectory reports are available in two forms:
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.
In a continuing effort to produce timely information, the wind trajectory reports are available in two forms:
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.
In a continuing effort to produce timely information, the wind trajectory reports are available in two forms:
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.
In a continuing effort to produce timely information, the wind trajectory reports are available in two forms:
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.
In a continuing effort to produce timely information, the wind trajectory reports are available in two forms:
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.
In a continuing effort to produce timely information, the wind trajectory reports are available in two forms:
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.
In a continuing effort to produce timely information, the wind trajectory reports are available in two forms:
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.
In a continuing effort to produce timely information, the wind trajectory reports are available in two forms:
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s. Trajectory models are used to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive species, such as diamondback moth. In addition, plant pathologists have shown that trajectories can assist with the prediction of plant disease infestations and are also beginning to utilize these same data. We receive two types of model output from ECCC: reverse trajectories and forward trajectories.
‘Reverse trajectories’ (RT) refer to air currents that are tracked back in time from specified Canadian locations over a five-day period prior to their arrival date. Of particular interest are those trajectories that, prior to their arrival in Canada, originated over northwestern and southern USA and Mexico, anywhere diamondback moth populations overwinter and adults are actively migrating. If diamondback adults are present in the air currents that originate from these southern locations, the moths may be deposited on the Prairies at sites along the trajectory, depending on the local weather conditions at the time that the trajectories pass over our area (e.g. rain showers, etc.). Reverse trajectories are the best available estimate of the ”true” 3D wind fields at a specific point. They are based on observations, satellite and radiosonde data.
‘Forward trajectories’ (FT) have a similar purpose; however, the modelling process begins at sites in USA & Mexico. The model output predicts the pathway of a trajectory. Again, of interest to us are the winds that eventually end up passing over the Prairies.
Ross Weiss (AAFC), Meghan Vankosky (AAFC) and Serge Trudel (ECCC)
DATE: APRIL 30, 2019
1. Reverse trajectories (RT)
a. Pacific Northwest (PNW) – For the period of April 24-30 there have been 18 RTs (originating over ID, OR and WA) that have crossed over prairie locations. By comparison, for the period of April 17-23 there were 51 RT’s. The majority PNW RTs have been reported to pass over southern AB. Since March 23rd Lethbridge AB has reported the highest number of PNW RTs (n=22), Beiseker AB (n=15) and Olds AB (n=31).
b. Mexico and SW USA (TX, CA) – No trajectories, originating over Mexico or southwest USA have crossed the prairies for the period of April 24-30, 2019. Since March 23, 2019 there have been 5 reverse trajectories that originated over Mexico, CA and TX. All five occurred on April 7.
c. Texas and Oklahoma – No trajectories, originating over TX or OK have crossed the prairies for the period of April 24-30, 2019. Since March 23, 2019 there have been 18 reverse trajectories that have originated over OK and TX. Most of these trajectories have crossed eastern SK and MB.
2. Forward trajectories (FT) –
The following table reports the origin of forward trajectories predicted to cross the prairies over the next five days (Note: ‘InitialDate’ refers to when the forward trajectory crossed the source location. Trajectories are predicted to cross prairie locations within five days of the initial date).
In a continuing effort to produce timely information, wind trajectory reports will be available both DAILY and WEEKLY:
Weather forecasts (7 day):
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s. Trajectory models are used to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive species, such as diamondback moth. In addition, plant pathologists have shown that trajectories can assist with the prediction of plant disease infestations and are also beginning to utilize these same data. We receive two types of model output from ECCC: reverse trajectories and forward trajectories.
‘Reverse trajectories’ (RT) refer to air currents that are tracked back in time from specified Canadian locations over a five-day period prior to their arrival date. Of particular interest are those trajectories that, prior to their arrival in Canada, originated over northwestern and southern USA and Mexico, anywhere diamondback moth populations overwinter and adults are actively migrating. If diamondback adults are present in the air currents that originate from these southern locations, the moths may be deposited on the Prairies at sites along the trajectory, depending on the local weather conditions at the time that the trajectories pass over our area (e.g. rain showers, etc.). Reverse trajectories are the best available estimate of the ”true” 3D wind fields at a specific point. They are based on observations, satellite and radiosonde data.
‘Forward trajectories’ (FT) have a similar purpose; however, the modelling process begins at sites in USA & Mexico. The model output predicts the pathway of a trajectory. Again, of interest to us are the winds that eventually end up passing over the Prairies.
Ross Weiss (AAFC), Meghan Vankosky (AAFC) and Serge Trudel (ECCC)
DATE: APRIL 24, 2019
Reverse trajectories (RT)
a. Pacific Northwest (PNW) – For the period of April 17-23, 2019, there have been 55 RT’s (originating over ID, OR and WA) that have crossed over prairie locations (Figs. 1 and 2). By comparison, for the period of April 10-16, 2019, there were 31 RT’s. The majority PNW RT’s have been reported to pass over southern AB. Since March 23rd, Lethbridge AB has reported the highest number of PNW RT’s (n=20), Beiseker AB (n=15) and Gainsborough SK (n=11).
b. Mexico and SW USA (TX, CA) – No trajectories, originating over Mexico or southwest USA have crossed the prairies for the period of April 17-23, 2019. Since March 23, 2019 there have been 5 reverse trajectories that originated over Mexico, CA and TX. All five occurred on April 7, 2019.
c. Texas and Oklahoma – No trajectories, originating over TX or OK have crossed the prairies for the period of April 17-23, 2019. Since March 23, 2019 there have been 18 reverse trajectories that have originated over OK and TX (Fig. 3). Most of these trajectories have crossed eastern SK and MB.
d. Nebraska and Kansas – No trajectories, originating over KS or NE have crossed the prairies for the period of April 17-23, 2019. Since March 23, 2019 there have been 18 reverse trajectories that have originated over KS and NE (Fig. 4).
In a continuing effort to produce timely information, wind trajectory reports will be available both DAILY and WEEKLY:
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s.
In a continuing effort to produce timely information, the wind trajectory reports will be available both DAILY and WEEKLY:
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990s. Trajectory models are used to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive species, such as diamondback moth. In addition, plant pathologists have shown that trajectories can assist with the prediction of plant disease infestations and are also beginning to utilize these same data. We receive two types of model output from ECCC: reverse trajectories and forward trajectories.
‘Reverse trajectories’ (RT) refer to air currents that are tracked back in time from specified Canadian locations over a five-day period prior to their arrival date. Of particular interest are those trajectories that, prior to their arrival in Canada, originated over northwestern and southern USA and Mexico, anywhere diamondback moth populations overwinter and adults are actively migrating. If diamondback adults are present in the air currents that originate from these southern locations, the moths may be deposited on the Prairies at sites along the trajectory, depending on the local weather conditions at the time that the trajectories pass over our area (e.g. rain showers, etc.). Reverse trajectories are the best available estimate of the ”true” 3D wind fields at a specific point. They are based on observations, satellite and radiosonde data.
‘Forward trajectories’ (FT) have a similar purpose; however, the modelling process begins at sites in USA & Mexico. The model output predicts the pathway of a trajectory. Again, of interest to us are the winds that eventually end up passing over the Prairies.
Ross Weiss (AAFC), Meghan Vankosky (AAFC) and Serge Trudel (ECCC)
DATE: APRIL 8, 2019
1. Reverse trajectories (RT):
a. Pacific Northwest (PNW) – For the period of April 2-8 there have been 69 RT’s (originating over the PNW) that have crossed over prairie locations. Since March 23rd Lethbridge has reported the highest number of PNW RT’s (n=9), followed by Olds AB, Beiseker AB and Dauphin MB (n=6).
List of PNW Reverse trajectories that have crossed the prairies (Since March 23, 2019):
b. Mexico and SW USA (SW) – On April 7 the first Southwestern USA and Mexico RT’s crossed the prairies. These reverse trajectories originated over TX and CA.
The following maps present two examples of April 7, 2019 RT’s. The first map indicates that the RT crossing Tisdale originated across southern TX. The second map shows that two RT’s crossed over Regina. The red line indicates that this RT originated over southern TX. A second RT originated across central CA.
Tisdale SK, April 7, 2019
Regina SK, April 7, 2019
2. Forward trajectories (FT) –
The following table reports the origin of forward trajectories predicted to cross the prairies over the next five days. Forward trajectories, originating over Santa Maria, CA are predicted to pass over SK and MB in the next five days.
Background: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive agricultural pests.
We receive two types of model output from ECCC: reverse trajectories (RT) and forward trajectories (FT):
(i) ‘Reverse trajectories’ (RT) refer to air currents that are tracked back in time from specified Canadian locations over a five-day period prior to their arrival date.
(ii) ‘Forward trajectories’ (FT) have a similar purpose; however, the modelling process begins at sites in USA and Mexico. The model output predicts the pathway of a trajectory. Again, of interest are the winds that eventually end up passing over the Prairies.
Current Data
Since April 1. 2018, the majority of Pacific Northwest (PNW) air currents have crossed over southern AB (Fig. 1). The cumulative number of wind dispersal events for June 1 – 11, 2018 (181) is greater than the long term (2007 – 2017) average (98).
Since April 1, the majority of air currents from southwest USA and Mexico have crossed over eastern SK and western MB (Fig. 2). So far there have been 18 RT’s (June 1 – 11, 2018) and compares with 2017 (3) and the long term average (24).
Weather forecasts (7 day):
Background: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive agricultural pests.
We receive two types of model output from ECCC: reverse trajectories (RT) and forward trajectories (FT):
(i) ‘Reverse trajectories’ (RT) refer to air currents that are tracked back in time from specified Canadian locations over a five-day period prior to their arrival date.
(ii) ‘Forward trajectories’ (FT) have a similar purpose; however, the modelling process begins at sites in USA and Mexico. The model output predicts the pathway of a trajectory. Again, of interest are the winds that eventually end up passing over the Prairies.
Current Data
The number of Reverse Trajectories (RTs), crossing the prairies in May 2018, was lower than the long term average (2007 – 2017). The total number of incoming trajectories (sum of Pacific Northwest and southwest USA/Mexico) for 2018 was less than similar values for 2017 and 2007 – 2017. Based on RTs by region, the number of RTs from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) was less than 2007 – 2017 and 2017. To date, the RTs originating in the southwest USA/Mexico in 2018, have been greater in number than in 2017 and less than the long term average (Fig. 1).
 |
| Figure 1. Total number of reverse trajectories by geographic region (Pacific Northwest and Mexico and the southwest USA) for May 2018. |
Weather forecasts (7 day):
Background: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive agricultural pests.
We receive two types of model output from ECCC: reverse trajectories (RT) and forward trajectories (FT):
(i) ‘Reverse trajectories’ (RT) refer to air currents that are tracked back in time from specified Canadian locations over a five-day period prior to their arrival date.
(ii) ‘Forward trajectories’ (FT) have a similar purpose; however, the modelling process begins at sites in USA and Mexico. The model output predicts the pathway of a trajectory. Again, of interest are the winds that eventually end up passing over the Prairies.
Current Data
Since May 21, 2018, the number of incoming trajectories (RTs) crossing the prairies has increased, particularly from California, Texas and Mexico (Fig. 1). The increased number of reverse trajectories could result in increased introductions of insects into the prairies.
 |
| Figure 1. Daily total number of reverse trajectories, originating over the Pacific Northwest AND Southwest of the USA, that have entered the Canadian prairies (May 1-28, 2018). |
Weather forecasts (7 day):
Background. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive agricultural pests.
We receive two types of model output from ECCC: reverse trajectories (RT) and forward trajectories (FT):
(i) ‘Reverse trajectories’ (RT) refer to air currents that are tracked back in time from specified Canadian locations over a five-day period prior to their arrival date.
(ii) ‘Forward trajectories’ (FT) have a similar purpose; however, the modelling process begins at sites in USA and Mexico. The model output predicts the pathway of a trajectory. Again, of interest are the winds that eventually end up passing over the Prairies.
Current Data
Pacific Northwest (PNW) – The total number of RT’s from the Pacific Northwest of the United States, for the period between May 1 – 22, 2018, was n=67. This was significantly less than in 2017 (n=226), as well as the long term average (n=166) (Fig. 1).
 |
|
| Figure 1. Daily total number of reverse trajectories originating over the Pacific Northwest of the United States that have entered the prairies (May 1-22, 2018). |
Weather forecasts (7 day):
Background. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990’s. Trajectory models are used to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive species, such as diamondback moth. In addition, plant pathologists have shown that trajectories can assist with the prediction of plant disease infestations and are also beginning to utilize these same data.
We receive two types of model output from ECCC: reverse trajectories (RT) and forward trajectories (FT):
(i) Reverse trajectories refer to air currents that are tracked back in time from specified Canadian locations over a five-day period prior to their arrival date. Of particular interest are those trajectories that, prior to their arrival in Canada, originated over northwestern and southern USA and Mexico, anywhere diamondback moth populations overwinter and adults are actively migrating. If diamondback adults are present in the air currents that originate from these southern locations, the moths may be deposited on the Prairies at sites along the trajectory, depending on the local weather conditions at the time that the trajectories pass over our area (e.g. rain showers, etc.). RTs are the best available estimate of 3D wind fields at a specific point. They are based on observations, satellite and radiosonde data.
(ii) Forward trajectories have a similar purpose; however, the modelling process begins at sites in USA and Mexico. The model output predicts the pathway of a trajectory. Again, of interest to us are the winds that eventually end up passing over the Prairies.
Current Data
Pacific Northwest (PNW) – The number of RTs, predicted to cross the prairies, has increased over the past week (Fig. 1). Though there has been an increase, results for May 1-14 predicted that 38 PNW reverse trajectories (RT) have crossed the prairies. This total is less than the average number 107 (based on 2007-2017) and well below last year’s results (155).
 |
| Figure 1. Daily total of reverse trajectories (RT) originating over the Pacific Northwest that have entered the prairies during April 2018. |
Weather forecasts (7 day):
Background. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have been working together to study the potential of trajectories for monitoring insect movements since the late 1990’s. Trajectory models are used to deliver an early-warning system for the origin and destination of migratory invasive species, such as diamondback moth. In addition, plant pathologists have shown that trajectories can assist with the prediction of plant disease infestations and are also beginning to utilize these same data.
We receive two types of model output from ECCC: reverse trajectories (RT) and forward trajectories (FT):
(i) Reverse trajectories refer to air currents that are tracked back in time from specified Canadian locations over a five-day period prior to their arrival date. Of particular interest are those trajectories that, prior to their arrival in Canada, originated over northwestern and southern USA and Mexico, anywhere diamondback moth populations overwinter and adults are actively migrating. If diamondback adults are present in the air currents that originate from these southern locations, the moths may be deposited on the Prairies at sites along the trajectory, depending on the local weather conditions at the time that the trajectories pass over our area (e.g. rain showers, etc.). RTs are the best available estimate of 3D wind fields at a specific point. They are based on observations, satellite and radiosonde data.
(ii) Forward trajectories have a similar purpose; however, the modelling process begins at sites in USA and Mexico. The model output predicts the pathway of a trajectory. Again, of interest to us are the winds that eventually end up passing over the Prairies.
Current Data
Pacific Northwest (PNW) – The number of RTs predicted to cross the prairies from the PNW, has increased over the last few days. Model runs for May 7th predicted that seven RTs will cross over AB and SK in the next 24 hours from the PNW. Based on results for April, there have been fewer RTs in 2018 than 2017. The number of RTs were greatest across southern AB (Fig. 1). The majority of these crossed the prairies in mid-April (Fig. 2).
 |
| Figure 1. Total number of reverse trajectories, originating over the US PNW, that has entered the prairies during April, 2018. |
 |
| Figure 2. Daily total number of reverse trajectories, originating over the US PNW, that have entered the prairies during April, 2018. |
Weather forecasts (7 day):
THE WEEK OF JUNE 15, 2017:
Reverse trajectories (RT)
There were 139 reverse trajectories that were predicted to pass across Alberta and Saskatchewan from the Pacific Northwest between May 26 and June 8.
Forward trajectories (FT)
The following map indicates the origin of forward trajectories predicted to cross the prairies over the next five days. There have been an increased number of winds that have crossed the prairies from the southwest USA and Mexico since June 1.
THE WEEK OF MAY 29, 2017: Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April. Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of May 23, 2017:
Reverse trajectories (RT)
Overall, the number of RTs entering the prairies from the Pacific
Northwest has been lower than average. The map (Fig. 1) shows that the greatest number
of RTs from the Pacific Northwest continued to be across southern Alberta.
 |
| Figure 1. Number of Reverse Trajectories (RT) originating in the Pacific Northwest that arrived at sites across the Canadian prairies from April 1-May 29, 2017. |
THE WEEK OF MAY 23, 2017: Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April. Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of May 23, 2017:
Reverse trajectories (RT)
Between May 16 and 23 there were 57 RT’s from the Pacific Northwest of USA that crossed the prairies. The first chart (Fig. 1) indicates site specific results for PNW RT’s for each day of the past week. Values reflect the fact that PNW RT’s were lower this week than previous weeks. The greatest number of PNW RT’s continued to be across southern AB (Fig. 2).
 |
| Figure 1. Cumulative number of Reverse Trajectories (RT) originating from the Pacific Northwest arriving across the Canadian prairies from May 16-23, 2017 (Olfert et al. 2017). |
 |
| Figure 2. Number of Reverse Trajectories (RT) originating in the Pacific Northwest that arrived at sites across the Canadian prairies from April 1-May 23, 2017. |
Forward trajectories (FT)
No FTs originating from Mexico or southwest USA/Mexico are predicted to cross the prairies over the next 5 days. The following map provides an overview of FTs that have crossed the prairies during the 2017 growing season.
 |
| Figure 2. Total number of reverse trajectories originating from the Pacific Northwest of the USA arriving at sites across the Canadian prairies (April 1-May 23, 2017). |
THE WEEK OF MAY 15, 2017: Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April. Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of May 15, 2017:
Reverse trajectories (RT)
Wind trajectories have been monitored since April 1 this year. Wind patterns continue to be similar to previous weeks. The first graph (Fig. 1) indicates that winds from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) passed over Carman MB each day of the past week. Though the number of RTs increased over the past week, the overall pattern has not changed across the prairies.
 |
| Figure 1. Number of Reverse Trajectories (RT) originating in the Pacific Northwest that have arrived at sites across the Canadian prairies from May 9-15, 2017. |
Figure 2 shows that the greatest number of RTs continue to be settling at sites across southern Alberta (e.g., areas highlighted red).
 |
| Figure 2. Total number of reverse trajectories originating from the Pacific Northwest of the USA arriving at sites across the Canadian prairies (April 1-May 15, 2017). |
THE WEEK OF MAY 1, 2017: Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April. Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of May 9, 2017:
Reverse trajectories (RT)
Wind trajectories have been monitored since April 1 this year. This week there was an increase in the number of RT winds that crossed the prairies from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) of USA. In Alberta, Grande Prairie and Beiseker had a significant increase in the number of RT winds over this past week (Fig. 1 and 2). In addition to the PNW, there were three prairie locations (Selkirk MB, Unity SK and Olds AB) that had winds originating from California and Texas.
 |
| Figure 1. Weekly cumulative counts of Reverse Trajectories (RT) from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) from May 3-9, 2017 (2017 Olfert et al.). |
 |
| Figure 2. Total number of RT winds from the Pacific Northwest from April 1-May 9, 2017. |
Forward trajectories (FT)
Similar to Reverse Trajectories, most of the model output of Forward Trajectories (FT) have originated from the Pacific Northwest (PNW). However, a few winds have been forecasted to cross the prairies from the southern USA since April 1, 2017 (Fig. 3).
 |
| Figure 3. Source destinations and number of FT winds originating from the USA between April 1-May 9, 2017. |
THE WEEK OF MAY 1, 2017: Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April. Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of May 1, 2017:
Reverse trajectories (RT)
Wind trajectories have been monitored since April 1 this year. To date, winds have originated predominantly from the USA – Pacific Northwest (PNW). Overall results indicate that eastern locations on the prairies have had fewer of these winds than western locations (Figure 1). Over the last week (April 25- May 1, 2017), Lethbridge has had significantly more RT’s from the Pacific Northwest than either SK and MB sites (Figure 2).
 |
| Figure 1. Summary of reverse trajectory wind data (PNW) for the prairies April 1-May 1, 2017. |
 |
| Figure 2. Based on results for specific locations (Brandon, Saskatoon, Lethbridge), Lethbridge has had significantly more RT’s from the Pacific Northwest than SK and MB. |
Forward trajectories (FT)
Forward trajectories that were predicted to cross the prairies from the southern USA and Mexico have been limited so far. There were a few isolated days of winds from Santa Maria and Imperial Valley, CA. and from Mexicali, Mexico in mid-April.
THE WEEK OF JUNE 13, 2016: Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April. Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of June 13, 2016:
Reverse trajectories (RT)
Mexico and southwest USA – This week, Grande Prairie (June 7) had the first report of a Reverse Trajectory crossing over southwest US and Mexico crossing. Other sites included Selkirk, Portage, Carman and Brandon.
The map below represents the distribution of RTs from the prairies that originated over southwest US and Mexico.
Forward trajectories (FT)
There were 17 Forward Trajectories from southwest US (12) and Mexico (5) that were predicted to cross the prairies over the next five days.
Weather forecasts (7 day):
Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html
Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html
Downloadable versions of the Wind Trajectory Updates are available here.
Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April. Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.
THE WEEK OF June 6, 2016: Nothing to report this week!
Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April. Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.
THE WEEK OF June 6, 2016: Nothing to report this week!
THE WEEK OF MAY 30, 2016: Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April. Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of May 30, 2016:
Reverse trajectories (RT)
Mexico and southwest USA – Gainsborough SK and Carman MB continue to have RT’s that originate across southwestern USA and Mexico this week.
The following are RTs originating from the Pacific Northwest of the USA:
Forward trajectories (FT)
None to report this week.
Weather forecasts (7 day):
Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html
Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html
Downloadable versions of the Wind Trajectory Updates are available here.
THE WEEK OF MAY 30, 2016: Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April. Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of May 30, 2016:
Reverse trajectories (RT) – Mexico and southwest USA
Gainsborough SK and Carman MB continue to have RT’s that originate across southwestern USA and Mexico this week.
Reverse Trajectories originating from Mexico and southwest USA between April 1-May 30, 2016:
Forward trajectories (FT)
No forward trajectories from southwestern USA so far this week.
Weather forecasts (7 day):
Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html
Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html
Downloadable versions of the Wind Trajectory Updates are available here.
THE WEEK OF MAY 24, 2016: Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April. Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of May 24, 2016:
Reverse trajectories (RT) – Mexico and southwest USA
Compared to 2015, the number of reverse trajectories crossing the prairies is greater in 2016. Since April 1, there have been 18 prairie locations that have had RT’s originating from southwest USA. This compares with 12 for the same time last year.
Reverse Trajectories originating from Mexico and southwest USA between April 1-May 24, 2016:
…..Compared to last year!
Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.
This week, Reverse Trajectories (RT) originating from southwest USA and Mexico have crossed over more than half of the prairie locations (18 of 29 locations). This week, first reports of these RT’s occurred for Russel MB, Gainsborough SK, Yorkton SK, Grenfell SK, Watrous SK, and Kindersley SK.
Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.
THE WEEK OF MAY 9, 2016: Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April. Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of May 9, 2016:
Reverse trajectories (RT)
Naicam, Regina, Tisdale (Saskatchewan) and Lethbridge, Beiseker (Alberta) had the first occurrences of Reverse Trajectories this week that originated from southwestern USA and /or Mexico.
Forward Trajectories (FT)
There are four forward trajectories from California and Texas that are predicted to cross the prairies over the next 5 days. Below is a map of the sites from which the Forward Trajectories originated that crossed the prairies over the past month.
Review the 2016 Wind Trajectory Updates in PDF format.
Weather forecasts (7 day):
Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html
Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html
Whereas Reverse Trajectories (RTs) originating from northwest USA have arrived over a greater area of the prairies with more RTs arriving in Alberta and the BC Peace:
THE WEEK OF APRIL 20-25, 2016: Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April. Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of April 15-20, 2016:
Reverse trajectories (RT)
None to report for this period.
Forward Trajectories (FT)
For several weeks now, the wind model continues to predict that Forward Trajectories, arriving from southwest US and Mexico, will cross the prairies over the next few days.
Review the 2016 Wind Trajectory Updates in pdf format.
Weather forecasts (7 day):
Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html
Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html
In summary, the following table is a compilation of the number of Forward Trajectories predicted to have crossed the prairies to date, by point of origin.
You can review the 2016 Wind Trajectory Updates in pdf format.
Weather forecasts (7 day)
Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html
Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html
THE WEEK OF APRIL 10-15, 2016: Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April. Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of April 10-15, 2016:
Reverse trajectories (RT)
None to report for this period.
Forward Trajectories (FT)
The wind trajectory model continues to predict that Forward Trajectories, arriving from the US southwest and Mexico, will cross the prairies over the next few days.
Over the past weeks, the greatest number of Forward Trajectories (n=10) that were predicted to arrive on the prairies came from the Imperial Valley in California.
Again, this week there are three forward trajectories from southern USA and Mexico that are predicted to cross the prairies over the next few days.
Weather forecasts (7 day)
Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html
Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html
 |
| Figure 1 |
 |
| Figure 2 |
|
Location
|
Projected
Arrival Dates |
|
BOZEMAN_MONTANA
|
25/05/2015
|
|
EASTERN_WASHINGTON
|
25/05/2015
|
|
MOSCOW_IDAHO
|
25/05/2015
|
|
EASTERN_WASHINGTON
|
24/05/2015
|
|
MANHATTAN_KANSAS
|
24/05/2015
|
|
MOSCOW_IDAHO
|
24/05/2015
|
|
BROWNSVILLE_TEXAS
|
23/05/2015
|
|
EASTERN_WASHINGTON
|
23/05/2015
|
|
MOSCOW_IDAHO
|
23/05/2015
|
|
Number
of Dates Reverse Trajectories Were Tracked to these Prairie Sites (between May 13-20, 2015) |
|||
|
Location
|
Latitude
|
Longitude
|
Number
of Dates |
|
BRANDON_MB
|
49.8
|
-99.9
|
3
|
|
SELKIRK_MB
|
50.1
|
-96.9
|
3
|
|
YORKTON_SK
|
51.2
|
-102.4
|
2
|
|
RUSSELL_MB
|
50.8
|
-101.3
|
2
|
|
CARMAN_MB
|
49.5
|
-98
|
2
|
|
GRENFELL_SK
|
50.4
|
-102.9
|
2
|
|
PORTAGE_MB
|
50
|
-98.3
|
2
|
|
LETHBRIDGE_AB
|
49.7
|
-112.8
|
1
|
|
KINDERSLEY_SK
|
51.5
|
-109.1
|
1
|
|
DAUPHIN_MB
|
51.1
|
-100
|
1
|
|
GAINSBOROUGH_SK
|
49.2
|
-101.4
|
1
|
|
PROVOST_AB
|
52.4
|
-110.3
|
1
|
See this week’s Insect of the Week for descriptions and pictures of the aster and potato leafhoppers (Macrosteles quadrilineatus and Empoasca fabae) from the new Field Crop and Forage Pests and their Natural Enemies in Western Canada – Identification and Management Field Guide
Between may 1-3, 2015, there were five forward trajectories originating over Texas and California that are predicted to cross over the prairies over the 2-3 days. An example of forward trajectories for the Santa Maria CA example is below. Note how air masses are predicted to land in northeast Saskatchewan, northern Manitoba, and into Ontario.
Nine forward trajectories are predicted to cross the
prairies from Mexico and the USA over the next five days.
|
Forward Trajectory Count Dates
|
|
|
Location ID
|
Initial Date
|
|
BOZEMAN_MONTANA
|
21/04/2015
|
|
EASTERN_WASHINGTON
|
21/04/2015
|
|
MOSCOW_IDAHO
|
21/04/2015
|
|
Forward Trajectory Count Dates
|
|
|
Location ID
|
Count Dates
|
|
EASTERN_WASHINGTON
|
12
|
|
BOZEMAN_MONTANA
|
12
|
|
MOSCOW_IDAHO
|
11
|
|
SANTA_MARIA_CALIFORNIA
|
5
|
|
MANHATTAN_KANSAS
|
5
|
|
MEXICALI_MEXICO
|
2
|
|
IMPERIAL_VALLEY_CALIFORNIA
|
2
|
|
WESLACO_TEXAS
|
1
|
|
LOUISIANA
|
1
|
BACKGROUND: Potential wind events capable of carrying insect
pests from source areas in the USA can be identified by following trajectories
for air parcels through time. High altitude air masses, originating
from southern locations, frequently move northerly to Canadian destinations.
Insect pest species such as Diamondback moth and Aster leafhoppers,
traditionally unable to overwinter above the 49th parallel, can utilize these
air masses in the spring to move north from Mexico and the United States
(southern or Pacific northwest). Data acquired from Environment Canada is
compiled by Olfert et al. (AAFC-Saskatoon) to track and model high altitude air
masses in the spring with respect to potential introductions of insect pests
onto the Canadian prairies. Each week, backward and forward trajectories
are examined with respect to source and destination in the following manner. The
forward trajectories are prognostic (5 days into the future) based on forecast
wind fields while the backward trajectories are diagnostic and based on
analyzed wind fields (5 days previous).
FOR THE WEEK OF APRIL 3-7, 2015: Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April. Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of April 3-7, 2015:
|
Reverse Trajectories Originating from PNW Arriving at Prairie Locations
|
|||
|
Location ID
|
Arriving Date
(dd-m-year)
|
Latitude
|
Longitude
|
|
WANHAM_AB
|
07/04/2015
|
55.7
|
-118.4
|
|
VEGREVILLE_AB
|
07/04/2015
|
53.5
|
-112
|
|
SEDGEWICK_AB
|
07/04/2015
|
52.8
|
-111.7
|
|
RYCROFT_AB
|
07/04/2015
|
55.8
|
-118.7
|
|
REGINA_SK
|
07/04/2015
|
50.5
|
-104.5
|
|
PROVOST_AB
|
07/04/2015
|
52.4
|
-110.3
|
|
OLDS_AB
|
07/04/2015
|
51.8
|
-114.1
|
|
LETHBRIDGE_AB
|
07/04/2015
|
49.7
|
-112.8
|
|
KINDERSLEY_SK
|
07/04/2015
|
51.5
|
-109.1
|
|
GRENFELL_SK
|
07/04/2015
|
50.4
|
-102.9
|
|
GRANDE_PRAIRIE_AB
|
07/04/2015
|
55.2
|
-118.8
|
|
GAINSBOROUGH_SK
|
07/04/2015
|
49.2
|
-101.4
|
|
FORT_VERMILION_AB
|
07/04/2015
|
58.4
|
-116
|
|
BEISEKER_AB
|
07/04/2015
|
51.4
|
-113.5
|
|
ANDREW_AB
|
07/04/2015
|
53.9
|
-112.3
|
|
VEGREVILLE_AB
|
06/04/2015
|
53.5
|
-112
|
|
SEDGEWICK_AB
|
06/04/2015
|
52.8
|
-111.7
|
|
OLDS_AB
|
06/04/2015
|
51.8
|
-114.1
|
|
LETHBRIDGE_AB
|
06/04/2015
|
49.7
|
-112.8
|
|
GRANDE_PRAIRIE_AB
|
06/04/2015
|
55.2
|
-118.8
|
|
BEISEKER_AB
|
06/04/2015
|
51.4
|
-113.5
|
|
LETHBRIDGE_AB
|
05/04/2015
|
49.7
|
-112.8
|
|
KINDERSLEY_SK
|
05/04/2015
|
51.5
|
-109.1
|
|
BEISEKER_AB
|
05/04/2015
|
51.4
|
-113.5
|
|
LETHBRIDGE_AB
|
04/04/2015
|
49.7
|
-112.8
|
Forward Trajectories (FT)
Forward trajectories originating from the following locations are predicted to cross the prairies within the next five days:
|
Forward Trajectory source locations predicted to cross the Canadian prairies
|
|
|
Location ID
|
Initial Date
(dd-m-year)
|
|
BOZEMAN_MONTANA
|
07/04/2015
|
|
EASTERN_WASHINGTON
|
07/04/2015
|
|
IMPERIAL_VALLEY_CALIFORNIA
|
07/04/2015
|
|
MEXICALI_MEXICO
|
07/04/2015
|
|
MOSCOW_IDAHO
|
07/04/2015
|
|
BOZEMAN_MONTANA
|
06/04/2015
|
|
EASTERN_WASHINGTON
|
06/04/2015
|
|
LOUISIANA
|
06/04/2015
|
|
MANHATTAN_KANSAS
|
06/04/2015
|
|
MOSCOW_IDAHO
|
06/04/2015
|
|
SANTA_MARIA_CALIFORNIA
|
06/04/2015
|
|
BOZEMAN_MONTANA
|
05/04/2015
|
|
EASTERN_WASHINGTON
|
05/04/2015
|
|
MANHATTAN_KANSAS
|
05/04/2015
|
|
EASTERN_WASHINGTON
|
04/04/2015
|
|
MANHATTAN_KANSAS
|
04/04/2015
|
|
MOSCOW_IDAHO
|
04/04/2015
|
|
EASTERN_WASHINGTON
|
03/04/2015
|
|
MOSCOW_IDAHO
|
03/04/2015
|